气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Global and regional impacts of climate change at different levels of global temperature increase

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s10584-019-02464-z
	Global and regional impacts of climate change at different levels of global temperature increase
	Arnell N.W.; Lowe J.A.; Challinor A.J.; Osborn T.J.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0165-0009
起始页码	377
结束页码	391
卷号	155 期号:3
英文摘要	The assessment of the impacts of climate change at different levels of global warming helps inform national and international policy discussion around mitigation targets. This paper provides consistent estimates of global and regional impacts and risks at increases in global mean temperature up to 5 °C above pre-industrial levels, for over 30 indicators representing temperature extremes and heatwaves, hydrological change, floods and droughts and proxies for impacts on crop yields. At the global scale, all the impacts that could plausibly be either adverse or beneficial are adverse, and impacts and risks increase with temperature change. For example, the global average chance of a major heatwave increases from 5% in 1981–2010 to 28% at 1.5 °C and 92% at 4 °C, of an agricultural drought increases from 9 to 24% at 1.5 °C and 61% at 4 °C, and of the 50-year return period river flood increases from 2 to 2.4% at 1.5 °C and 5.4% at 4 °C. The chance of a damaging hot spell for maize increases from 5 to 50% at 4 °C, whilst the chance for rice rises from 27 to 46%. There is considerable uncertainty around these central estimates, and impacts and risks vary between regions. Some impacts—for example heatwaves—increase rapidly as temperature increases, whilst others show more linear responses. The paper presents estimates of the risk of impacts exceeding specific targets and demonstrates that these estimates are sensitive to the thresholds used. © 2019, The Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Agriculture; Drought; Floods; Global warming; Agricultural drought; Global-mean temperature; Hydrological changes; International policies; Pre-industrial levels; Temperature changes; Temperature extremes; Temperature increase; Uncertainty analysis; agrometeorology; climate change; drought stress; flooding; heat wave; hydrological change; maize; rice; risk assessment; Zea mays
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147424
作者单位	Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; Priestley International Centre for Climate, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom; CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), International Centre for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Cali, Colombia; Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Arnell N.W.,Lowe J.A.,Challinor A.J.,et al. Global and regional impacts of climate change at different levels of global temperature increase[J],2019,155(3).
APA	Arnell N.W.,Lowe J.A.,Challinor A.J.,&Osborn T.J..(2019).Global and regional impacts of climate change at different levels of global temperature increase.Climatic Change,155(3).
MLA	Arnell N.W.,et al."Global and regional impacts of climate change at different levels of global temperature increase".Climatic Change 155.3(2019).