气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Projected changes in the seasonal cycle of extreme rainfall events from CORDEX simulations over Central Africa

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s10584-019-02492-9
	Projected changes in the seasonal cycle of extreme rainfall events from CORDEX simulations over Central Africa
	Fotso-Nguemo T.C.; Diallo I.; Diakhaté M.; Vondou D.A.; Mbaye M.L.; Haensler A.; Gaye A.T.; Tchawoua C.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0165-0009
起始页码	339
结束页码	357
卷号	155 期号:3
英文摘要	This study explores the potential response of the seasonal cycle of extreme rainfall indices over Central Africa (CA) to the global warming for both the middle (2029–2058) and late twenty-first century (2069–2098), based on analysis of multi-model ensembles mean of fifteen regional climate models (RCMs) simulations. Although few dry/wet biases are still evident, for the present day climate, the RCMs ensemble mostly outperforms the driving global climate models, with a better representation of the seasonal cycle of various rainfall indices over two key sub-regions of CA chosen according to their particular rainfall patterns. Both middle and late twenty-first century project a non-significant decrease in total wet-day rainfall amount over the two analysed sub-regions, with peaks found during pre-monsoon months. We also found a significant decrease in wet-day frequency which was consistent with decreases in total wet-day rainfall amount, while wet-day intensity is projected to significantly increase. These results suggest that the decrease in total wet-day rainfall amount could be associated with less frequent events and not with their intensity. The results also have shown that dry (wet) spells are projected to significantly increase (decrease) over both sub-regions with shorter (longer) dry (wet) spells projected during pre-monsoon months. Consequently, countries within these two sub-regions could experience a more extended dry season, and therefore would be exposed to high drought risk in the future under global warming. However, changes in maximum 1-day rainfall amount, maximum 5-day rainfall amount, and 95th percentile are projected to significantly increase during monsoon months, with the maximum 1-day rainfall amount recording largest increases. Additionally, the total amount of rainfall events above the 95th percentile projects a significant increase of about 10–45 % during monsoon months, while the total number of occurrence of rainfall events above the 95th percentile projects a slight significant decrease of 4–8 % during pre-monsoon months but more pronounced for the late twenty-first century. This implies that in the future, extremes rainfall events could be more intense both in terms of rainfall amount and intensity during monsoon months. Such changes are likely to amplify the probability of flood risks during monsoon months over CA, particularly the two sub-regions. This study could therefore be an important input for disaster preparedness, adaptation planning, and mitigation strategies for Central African countries. © 2019, Springer Nature B.V.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Atmospheric thermodynamics; Climate models; Disaster prevention; Drought; Flood control; Floods; Global warming; Risks; Disaster preparedness; Global climate model; Mitigation strategy; Multi-model ensemble; Potential response; Rainfall patterns; Regional climate models; Wet-day frequency; Rain; climate modeling; drought; ensemble forecasting; extreme event; flood; global climate; global warming; monsoon; precipitation intensity; rainfall; regional climate; seasonal variation; simulation; Central Africa
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147422
作者单位	Climate Change Research Laboratory (CCRL), National Institute of Cartography, P.O. Box 157, Yaounde, Cameroon; Laboratory for Environmental Modelling and Atmospheric Physics (LEMAP), Department of Physics, Faculty of Science, University of Yaounde 1, P.O. Box 812, Yaounde, Cameroon; Department of Geography, University of California Los Angeles (UCLA), Los Angeles, CA 90095, United States; Laboratoire de Physique de l’Atmosphère et de l’Océan Siméon Fongang (LPAO-SF), Ecole Supérieure Polytechnique, Université Cheikh Anta Diop, P.O. Box 5085, Dakar, Senegal; Laboratoire Mixte International “Dynamique des écosystèmes continentaux d’Afrique Centrale en contexte de changements globaux” (LMI DYCOFAC), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, P.O. Box 1857, Yaounde, Cameroon; Département de Physique, Unité de Formation et de Recherches en Sciences et Technologies (UFR-ST), Université Assane Seck, P.O. Box 523, Ziguinchor, Senegal; Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS), Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Fisch...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Fotso-Nguemo T.C.,Diallo I.,Diakhaté M.,et al. Projected changes in the seasonal cycle of extreme rainfall events from CORDEX simulations over Central Africa[J],2019,155(3).
APA	Fotso-Nguemo T.C..,Diallo I..,Diakhaté M..,Vondou D.A..,Mbaye M.L..,...&Tchawoua C..(2019).Projected changes in the seasonal cycle of extreme rainfall events from CORDEX simulations over Central Africa.Climatic Change,155(3).
MLA	Fotso-Nguemo T.C.,et al."Projected changes in the seasonal cycle of extreme rainfall events from CORDEX simulations over Central Africa".Climatic Change 155.3(2019).