气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The glass half-empty: climate change drives lower freshwater input in the coastal system of the Chilean Northern Patagonia

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DOI	10.1007/s10584-019-02495-6
	The glass half-empty: climate change drives lower freshwater input in the coastal system of the Chilean Northern Patagonia
	Aguayo R.; León-Muñoz J.; Vargas-Baecheler J.; Montecinos A.; Garreaud R.; Urbina M.; Soto D.; Iriarte J.L.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0165-0009
起始页码	417
结束页码	435
卷号	155 期号:3
英文摘要	Oceanographic conditions in coastal Chilean northern Patagonia (41–46°S) are strongly influenced by freshwater inputs. Precipitation and streamflow records have shown a marked decrease in this area during the last decades. Given this hydro-climatic scenario, we evaluated the hydrological sensitivity driven by climate change in the Puelo River (average annual streamflow = 640 m3 s−1), one of the most important sources of freshwater in the fjords and inland seas of Chile’s Northern Patagonia. A lumped hydrological model was developed to evaluate the potential impacts of climate change under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 scenarios in the near future (2030–2060) using the delta change method based on 25 General Circulation Models. The model was fed by local hydro-meteorological data and remote sensors, simulating well the magnitude and seasonality of Puelo River streamflow. Considering the Refined Index of Agreement (RIA), the model achieved a high performance in the calibration (RIA = 0.79) and validation stages (RIA = 0.78). Under the RCP 8.5 scenario (multi-model mean), the projections suggest that the annual input of freshwater from the Puelo River to the Reloncaví Fjord would decrease by − 10% (1.6 km3 less freshwater); these decreases would mainly take place in summer (~ − 20%) and autumn (~ − 15%). The recurrence of extreme hydroclimatic events is also projected to increase in the future, with the probability of occurrence of droughts, such as the recent 2016 event with the lowest freshwater input in the last 70 years, doubling with respect to the historical records. © 2019, Springer Nature B.V.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate models; Digital storage; Remote sensing; Rivers; Stream flow; Water; General circulation model; Historical records; Hydrological modeling; Index of agreements; Meteorological data; Oceanographic conditions; Probability of occurrence; Streamflow records; Climate change; climate change; coastal zone; fjord; freshwater input; hydrological modeling; hydrometeorology; satellite sensor; streamflow; Patagonia; Puelo River
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147420
作者单位	Departamento de Ingeniería Civil, Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad de Concepción, Concepción, Chile; Departamento de Química Ambiental, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Católica de la Santísima Concepción, Concepción, Chile; Centro Interdisciplinario para la Investigación Acuícola (INCAR), Concepción, Chile; Departamento de Geofísica, Facultad de Ciencias Físicas y Matemáticas, Universidad de Concepción, Concepción, Chile; Centro de Recursos Hídricos para la Agricultura y Minería (CRHIAM), Concepción, Chile; Departamento de Geofísica, Facultad de Ciencias Físicas y Matemáticas, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Centro de Ciencia del Clima y la Resiliencia (CR2), Santiago, Chile; Departamento de Zoología, Facultad de Ciencias Naturales y Oceanográficas, Universidad de Concepción, Concepción, Chile; Instituto Milenio de Oceanografía (IMO), Universidad de Concepción, Concepción, Chile; Instituto de Acuicultura, Centro de Investigación Dinámica de Ecosistemas Marinos de Altas Latitudes (IDEAL), Unive...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Aguayo R.,León-Muñoz J.,Vargas-Baecheler J.,et al. The glass half-empty: climate change drives lower freshwater input in the coastal system of the Chilean Northern Patagonia[J],2019,155(3).
APA	Aguayo R..,León-Muñoz J..,Vargas-Baecheler J..,Montecinos A..,Garreaud R..,...&Iriarte J.L..(2019).The glass half-empty: climate change drives lower freshwater input in the coastal system of the Chilean Northern Patagonia.Climatic Change,155(3).
MLA	Aguayo R.,et al."The glass half-empty: climate change drives lower freshwater input in the coastal system of the Chilean Northern Patagonia".Climatic Change 155.3(2019).