气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Assessing the degree of hydrologic stress due to climate change

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s10584-019-02497-4
	Assessing the degree of hydrologic stress due to climate change
	Nathan R.J.; McMahon T.A.; Peel M.C.; Horne A.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0165-0009
起始页码	87
结束页码	104
卷号	156 期号:2020-01-02
英文摘要	Hydrologists are commonly involved in impact, adaption and vulnerability assessments for climate change projections. This paper presents a framework for how such assessments can better differentiate between the impacts of climate change and those of natural variability, an important differentiation as it relates to the vulnerability to water availability under change. The key concept involved is to characterize “hydrologic stress” relative to the range of behaviour encountered under baseline conditions, where the degree to which climate change causes the behaviour of a system to shift outside this baseline range provides a non-dimensional measure of stress. The concept is applicable to any system that is subject to climate forcings, though the approach is applied here to a range of examples illustrative of many environmental and engineering applications. These include hydrologic systems that are dependent on the frequency of flows above or below selected thresholds, those that are dominated by storage and those which are sensitive to the sequencing of selected flow components. The analyses illustrate that systems designed or adapted to accommodate high variability are less stressed by a given magnitude of climate impacts than those operating under more uniform conditions. The metrics characterize hydrologic stress in a manner that can facilitate comparison across different regions, or across different assets within a region. Adoption of the approach requires reliance on the use of climate ensembles that represent aleatory uncertainty under both baseline and impacted conditions, and this has implications for how the outputs of climate models are provided and utilized. © 2019, Springer Nature B.V.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate models; Aleatory uncertainty; Base-line conditions; Climate change projections; Engineering applications; Hydrologic systems; Natural variability; Vulnerability assessments; Water availability; Climate change; assessment method; climate change; climate effect; climate forcing; climate modeling; vulnerability
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147414
作者单位	Infrastructure Engineering, University of Melbourne, Grattan St, Parkville, VIC, Australia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Nathan R.J.,McMahon T.A.,Peel M.C.,et al. Assessing the degree of hydrologic stress due to climate change[J],2019,156(2020-01-02).
APA	Nathan R.J.,McMahon T.A.,Peel M.C.,&Horne A..(2019).Assessing the degree of hydrologic stress due to climate change.Climatic Change,156(2020-01-02).
MLA	Nathan R.J.,et al."Assessing the degree of hydrologic stress due to climate change".Climatic Change 156.2020-01-02(2019).