气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Future changes and uncertainty in decision-relevant measures of East African climate

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s10584-019-02499-2
	Future changes and uncertainty in decision-relevant measures of East African climate
	Bornemann F.J.; Rowell D.P.; Evans B.; Lapworth D.J.; Lwiza K.; Macdonald D.M.J.; Marsham J.H.; Tesfaye K.; Ascott M.J.; Way C.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0165-0009
起始页码	365
结束页码	384
卷号	156 期号:3
英文摘要	The need for the development of adaptation strategies for climate change in Africa is becoming critical. For example, infrastructure with a long lifespan now needs to be designed or adapted to account for a future climate that will be different from the past or present. There is a growing necessity for the climate information used in decision making to change from traditional science-driven metrics to decision-driven metrics. This is particularly relevant in East Africa, where limited adaptation and socio-economic capacity make this region acutely vulnerable to climate change. Here, we employ an interdisciplinary consultation process to define and analyse a number of such decision-oriented metrics. These metrics take a holistic approach, addressing the key East African sectors of agriculture, water supply, fisheries, flood management, urban infrastructure and urban health. A multifaceted analysis of multimodel climate projections then provides a repository of user-focused information on climate change and its uncertainties, for all metrics and seasons and two future time horizons. The spatial character and large intermodel uncertainty of changes in temperature and rainfall metrics are described, as well as those of other relevant metrics such as evaporation and solar radiation. Intermodel relationships amongst metrics are also explored, with two clear clusters forming around rainfall and temperature metrics. This latter analysis determines the extent to which model weights could, or could not, be applied across multiple climate metrics. Further work must now focus on maximising the utility of model projections, and developing tailored risk-based communication strategies. © 2019, The Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate models; Decision making; Flood control; Rain; Uncertainty analysis; Water supply; Adaptation strategies; Climate information; Communication strategy; Consultation process; East african climates; Multifaceted analysis; Traditional science; Urban infrastructure; Climate change; climate change; decision making; evaporation; future prospect; interdisciplinary approach; rainfall; socioeconomic conditions; solar radiation; temperature; uncertainty analysis; vulnerability; East Africa
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147397
作者单位	Met Office Hadley Centre, Fitzroy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, United Kingdom; University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom; British Geological Survey, Wallingford, United Kingdom; Stony Brook University, New York, NY, United States; National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS), Leeds, United Kingdom; International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Bornemann F.J.,Rowell D.P.,Evans B.,et al. Future changes and uncertainty in decision-relevant measures of East African climate[J],2019,156(3).
APA	Bornemann F.J..,Rowell D.P..,Evans B..,Lapworth D.J..,Lwiza K..,...&Way C..(2019).Future changes and uncertainty in decision-relevant measures of East African climate.Climatic Change,156(3).
MLA	Bornemann F.J.,et al."Future changes and uncertainty in decision-relevant measures of East African climate".Climatic Change 156.3(2019).