气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): National-scale analysis of future river flow and soil moisture droughts: potential changes in drought characteristics

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DOI	10.1007/s10584-019-02528-0
	National-scale analysis of future river flow and soil moisture droughts: potential changes in drought characteristics
	Rudd A.C.; Kay A.L.; Bell V.A.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0165-0009
起始页码	323
结束页码	340
卷号	156 期号:3
英文摘要	The potential impact of climate change on drought is of increasing concern, especially due to recent occurrences of major events across the globe. Here a national-scale grid–based hydrological model is used to investigate potential future changes in river flow and soil moisture droughts across Great Britain. The analysis uses ensembles of climate model data for four time periods (1930s, 1980s, 2030s and 2080s) under a “business-as-usual” (RCP8.5) emissions trajectory. The results show that the severity of droughts is projected to increase in the future. River flow droughts in southeastern regions are projected to increase in peak intensity and lengthen slightly, whereas peak intensities are projected to decrease for much of the rest of Britain. Droughts with the largest spatial extent across Britain are projected to increase in area for both river flow and soil moisture. More extreme droughts than previously experienced could have a significant impact on the aquatic environment as well as the availability of water for industry, agriculture and public water supply. Regional- to national-scale droughts could have implications for potential mitigation measures such as water transfer between regions. In turn, this could lead to social and economic impacts, especially as there are also likely to be future increases in demand. © 2019, Springer Nature B.V.
英文关键词	Drought; Great Britain; Hydrology; Low flow; River flow; Soil moisture
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate change; Climate models; Hydrology; Rivers; Soil moisture; Stream flow; Water supply; Aquatic environments; Drought characteristics; Great Britain; Hydrological modeling; Low flow; Mitigation measures; River flow; Social and economic impacts; Drought; climate change; climate modeling; drought stress; hydrological regime; low flow; river flow; soil moisture; water supply; United Kingdom
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147386
作者单位	Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Rudd A.C.,Kay A.L.,Bell V.A.. National-scale analysis of future river flow and soil moisture droughts: potential changes in drought characteristics[J],2019,156(3).
APA	Rudd A.C.,Kay A.L.,&Bell V.A..(2019).National-scale analysis of future river flow and soil moisture droughts: potential changes in drought characteristics.Climatic Change,156(3).
MLA	Rudd A.C.,et al."National-scale analysis of future river flow and soil moisture droughts: potential changes in drought characteristics".Climatic Change 156.3(2019).