气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Assessment of the Laurentian Great Lakes’ hydrological conditions in a changing climate

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DOI	10.1007/s10584-019-02530-6
	Assessment of the Laurentian Great Lakes’ hydrological conditions in a changing climate
	Mailhot E.; Music B.; Nadeau D.F.; Frigon A.; Turcotte R.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0165-0009
起始页码	243
结束页码	259
卷号	157 期号:2
英文摘要	A set of 28 simulations from five regional climate models are used in this study to assess the Great Lakes’ water supply from 1953 to 2100 following emissions scenarios RCP4.5 and 8.5 with a focus on bi-weekly changes in the means and extremes of hydrological variables. Models are first evaluated by comparing annual cycles of precipitation, runoff, evaporation and net basin supply (NBS) with observations. Trends in mean values are then studied for each variable using Theil-Sen’s statistical test. Changes in extreme conditions are analyzed using generalized extreme values distributions for a reference period (1971–2000) and two future periods (2041–2070 and 2071–2100). Ensemble trend results show evaporation increases of 136 and 204 mm (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) over the Great Lakes between 1953 and 2100. Precipitation increases by 83 and 140 mm and runoff increases by 68 and 135 mm. Trends are not equally distributed throughout the year as seasonal changes differ greatly. As a result, Great Lakes net basin supply is expected to increase in winter and spring and decrease in summer. Over the entire year, NBS increases of 14 and 70 mm are projected for scenarios RCP4.5 and 8.5 respectively by the year 2100. An analysis of extreme values reveals that precipitation and NBS maxima increase by 11 to 27% and 1 to 9% respectively, while NBS minima decrease by 18 to 29% between 1971–2000 and 2041–2100. © 2019, The Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate change; Climate models; Evaporation; Runoff; Water supply; Emissions scenarios; Extreme conditions; Generalized extreme value; Hydrological condition; Hydrological variables; Laurentian Great Lakes; Regional climate models; Seasonal changes; Lakes; basin analysis; climate modeling; evaporation; hydrological cycle; hydrological regime; precipitation assessment; regional climate; runoff; Canada; Great Lakes [North America]; Laurentian Mountains; Quebec [Canada]
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147372
作者单位	Université Laval, 1065, av. de la Médecine, Quebec, QC G1V 0A6, Canada; Ministère de l’Environnement et de la Lutte contre les changements climatiques du Québec, 675 René-Lévesque Est, Quebec, QC G1R 5V7, Canada; Ouranos - Consortium on Regional Climatology and Adaptation to Climate Change, 550 Sherbrooke West, West Tower, 19th Floor, Montreal, QC H3A 1B9, Canada; Université Laval - Department of Civil and Water Engineering, 1065, av. de la Médecine, Quebec, QC G1V 0A6, Canada
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Mailhot E.,Music B.,Nadeau D.F.,等. Assessment of the Laurentian Great Lakes’ hydrological conditions in a changing climate[J],2019,157(2).
APA	Mailhot E.,Music B.,Nadeau D.F.,Frigon A.,&Turcotte R..(2019).Assessment of the Laurentian Great Lakes’ hydrological conditions in a changing climate.Climatic Change,157(2).
MLA	Mailhot E.,et al."Assessment of the Laurentian Great Lakes’ hydrological conditions in a changing climate".Climatic Change 157.2(2019).