气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Negative emissions and international climate goals—learning from and about mitigation scenarios

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s10584-019-02516-4
	Negative emissions and international climate goals—learning from and about mitigation scenarios
	Hilaire J.; Minx J.C.; Callaghan M.W.; Edmonds J.; Luderer G.; Nemet G.F.; Rogelj J.; del Mar Zamora M.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0165-0009
起始页码	189
结束页码	219
卷号	157 期号:2
英文摘要	For aiming to keep global warming well-below 2 °C and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5 °C, as set out in the Paris Agreement, a full-fledged assessment of negative emission technologies (NETs) that remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere is crucial to inform science-based policy making. With the Paris Agreement in mind, we re-analyse available scenario evidence to understand the roles of NETs in 1.5 °C and 2 °C scenarios and, for the first time, link this to a systematic review of findings in the underlying literature. In line with previous research, we find that keeping warming below 1.5 °C requires a rapid large-scale deployment of NETs, while for 2 °C, we can still limit NET deployment substantially by ratcheting up near-term mitigation ambition. Most recent evidence stresses the importance of future socio-economic conditions in determining the flexibility of NET deployment and suggests opportunities for hedging technology risks by adopting portfolios of NETs. Importantly, our thematic review highlights that there is a much richer set of findings on NETs than commonly reflected upon both in scientific assessments and available reviews. In particular, beyond the common findings on NETs underpinned by dozens of studies around early scale-up, the changing shape of net emission pathways or greater flexibility in the timing of climate policies, there is a suite of “niche and emerging findings”, e.g. around innovation needs and rapid technological change, termination of NETs at the end of the twenty-first century or the impacts of climate change on the effectiveness of NETs that have not been widely appreciated. Future research needs to explore the role of climate damages on NET uptake, better understand the geophysical constraints of NET deployment (e.g. water, geological storage, climate feedbacks), and provide a more systematic assessment of NET portfolios in the context of sustainable development goals. © 2019, The Author(s).
英文关键词	1.5 °C; 2 °C; Carbon dioxide removal; Integrated assessment model; Negative emission; Systematic evidence synthesis
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Carbon dioxide; Global warming; Carbon dioxide removal; Emission technology; Geological storage; Integrated assessment models; Large-scale deployment; Socio-economic conditions; Systematic assessment; Technological change; Damage detection; carbon dioxide; climate change; emission control; environmental policy; global warming; integrated approach; international agreement; policy making; sustainable development
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147371
作者单位	Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, Torgauer Straße 12-15, EUREF Campus #19, Berlin, 10829, Germany; Member of the Leibniz Association, Postdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany; School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, United Kingdom; Pacific Northwest National Laboratory – Joint Global Change Research Institute, 5825 University Research Court, College Park, MD 20740, United States; La Follette School of Public Affairs, University of Wisconsin–Madison, 1225 Observatory Drive, Madison, WI 53706, United States; ENE Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria; Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London, London, SW7 2AZ, United Kingdom; Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Hilaire J.,Minx J.C.,Callaghan M.W.,等. Negative emissions and international climate goals—learning from and about mitigation scenarios[J],2019,157(2).
APA	Hilaire J..,Minx J.C..,Callaghan M.W..,Edmonds J..,Luderer G..,...&del Mar Zamora M..(2019).Negative emissions and international climate goals—learning from and about mitigation scenarios.Climatic Change,157(2).
MLA	Hilaire J.,et al."Negative emissions and international climate goals—learning from and about mitigation scenarios".Climatic Change 157.2(2019).