气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Climate change impacts on groundwater storage in the Central Valley; California

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s10584-019-02585-5
	Climate change impacts on groundwater storage in the Central Valley; California
	Alam S.; Gebremichael M.; Li R.; Dozier J.; Lettenmaier D.P.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0165-0009
起始页码	387
结束页码	406
卷号	157 期号:2020-03-04
英文摘要	Groundwater plays a critical supporting role in agricultural production in the California Central Valley (CV). Recent prolonged droughts (notably 2007–2009 and 2012–2016) caused dramatic depletion of groundwater, indicating the susceptibility of the CV’s water supply to climate change. To assess the impact of climate change on groundwater storage in the CV, we combined integrated surface water and groundwater models with climate projections from 20 global climate models and thereby explore the vulnerability of CV groundwater under two climate scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. We found that groundwater has been declining over the past decades (3 km3/year on average during 1950–2009). In the absence of future mitigating measures, this decline will continue, but at a higher rate due to climate change (31% and 39% increase in loss rate under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The greatest loss (more than 80% of the total) will occur in the semi-arid southern Tulare region. We performed computational experiments to quantify the relative contribution of future crop water use and headwater inflows to total groundwater storage change. Our results show that, without management changes, continuing declines in future groundwater storage will mainly be attributable to ongoing overuse of groundwater. However, future changes in the seasonality of streamflow into the CV, (small) changes in annual inflows, and increased crop water use in a warmer climate will lead to 40–70% more annual groundwater losses than the current annual average, up to approximately 5 km3/year. © 2019, Springer Nature B.V.
英文关键词	Central Valley; Climate change; Groundwater; Integrated modeling
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate models; Crops; Groundwater; Landforms; Surface waters; Water conservation; Water supply; Agricultural productions; Central Valley; Climate change impact; Computational experiment; Global climate model; Integrated modeling; Relative contribution; Surface water and groundwaters; Climate change; agricultural production; climate change; global climate; groundwater resource; headwater; integrated approach; seasonality; streamflow; water storage; water use; California; Central Valley [California]; United States
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147350
作者单位	Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, United States; School of Earth Systems and Sustainability, Southern Illinois University-Carbondale, Carbondale, IL, United States; Bren School of Environmental Science & Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA, United States; Department of Geography, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Alam S.,Gebremichael M.,Li R.,et al. Climate change impacts on groundwater storage in the Central Valley; California[J],2019,157(2020-03-04).
APA	Alam S.,Gebremichael M.,Li R.,Dozier J.,&Lettenmaier D.P..(2019).Climate change impacts on groundwater storage in the Central Valley; California.Climatic Change,157(2020-03-04).
MLA	Alam S.,et al."Climate change impacts on groundwater storage in the Central Valley; California".Climatic Change 157.2020-03-04(2019).