气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Decomposing supply-side and demand-side impacts of climate change on the US electricity system through 2050

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s10584-019-02506-6
	Decomposing supply-side and demand-side impacts of climate change on the US electricity system through 2050
	Steinberg D.C.; Mignone B.K.; Macknick J.; Sun Y.; Eurek K.; Badger A.; Livneh B.; Averyt K.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0165-0009
起始页码	125
结束页码	139
卷号	158 期号:2
英文摘要	Climate change may affect the US electricity system through changes in electricity demand, mediated by increases in average surface temperature, and through changes in electricity supply, mediated by changes in both surface temperature and regional water availability. By coupling projections from four general circulation models (GCMs) with a state-of-the-art US electricity system model—the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS)—this study evaluates both the isolated and combined effects of different climate-mediated drivers of US electricity system change through 2050. Comparing results across climate models allows us to evaluate which effects are robust to uncertainty in projected climate outcomes. Comparing effects of different drivers in isolation and in combination allows us to determine the relative contributions of the climate-mediated effects on system evolution. Our results indicate that national-level energy and economic impacts are largely driven by increases in electricity demand that follow from a consistent increase in surface air temperature that is largely robust to the choice of climate model. Other electricity system changes can be equally or more significant in some regions, but these effects are more regionally variable, less significant when aggregated to the national scale, and less robust to the choice of climate model. The findings show that the impacts of climate change on the electricity system can be understood in terms of fewer drivers and with greater certainty at the national level than at the regional level. © 2020, ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Company, The National Renewable Energy Laboratory.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Atmospheric temperature; Climate models; Electric power system interconnection; Electric power utilization; Surface properties; Electricity demands; Electricity supply; Electricity system; General circulation model; Relative contribution; Surface air temperatures; Surface temperatures; Water availability; Climate change; climate change; climate effect; decomposition analysis; demand-side management; economic impact; electricity supply; supply chain management; surface temperature; water availability; United States
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147329
作者单位	National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO 80401, United States; ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Company, Annandale, NJ 08801, United States; Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO 80309, United States; Department of Civil, Environmental, and Architectural Engineering, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO 80309, United States; Desert Research Institute, Las Vegas, NV 89119, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Steinberg D.C.,Mignone B.K.,Macknick J.,et al. Decomposing supply-side and demand-side impacts of climate change on the US electricity system through 2050[J],2020,158(2).
APA	Steinberg D.C..,Mignone B.K..,Macknick J..,Sun Y..,Eurek K..,...&Averyt K..(2020).Decomposing supply-side and demand-side impacts of climate change on the US electricity system through 2050.Climatic Change,158(2).
MLA	Steinberg D.C.,et al."Decomposing supply-side and demand-side impacts of climate change on the US electricity system through 2050".Climatic Change 158.2(2020).