气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Implications of ambiguity in Antarctic ice sheet dynamics for future coastal erosion estimates: a probabilistic assessment

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DOI	10.1007/s10584-020-02769-4
	Implications of ambiguity in Antarctic ice sheet dynamics for future coastal erosion estimates: a probabilistic assessment
	Verschuur J.; Le Bars D.; Katsman C.A.; de Vries S.; Ranasinghe R.; Drijfhout S.S.; Aarninkhof S.G.J.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0165-0009
英文摘要	Sea-level rise (SLR) can amplify the episodic erosion from storms and drive chronic erosion on sandy shorelines, threatening many coastal communities. One of the major uncertainties in SLR projections is the potential rapid disintegration of large fractions of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS). Quantifying this uncertainty is essential to support sound risk management of coastal areas, although it is neglected in many erosion impact assessments. Here, we use the island of Sint Maarten as a case study to evaluate the impact of AIS uncertainty for future coastal recession. We estimate SLR-induced coastal recession using a probabilistic framework and compare and contrast three cases of AIS dynamics within the range of plausible futures. Results indicate that projections of coastal recession are sensitive to local morphological factors and assumptions made on how AIS dynamics are incorporated into SLR projections and that underestimating the potential rapid mass loss from the AIS can lead to ill-informed coastal adaptation decisions. © 2020, Springer Nature B.V.
英文关键词	Antarctica; Coastal erosion; Probabilistics; Rapid disintegration; Sea-level rise
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Disintegration; Dynamics; Erosion; Glaciers; Risk management; Sea level; Adaptation decisions; Antarctic ice sheets; Coastal communities; Impact assessments; Morphological factors; Probabilistic assessments; Probabilistic framework; Sandy shoreline; Automatic identification
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147320
作者单位	Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Delft University of Technology, Stevinweg 1, Delft, 2628 CN, Netherlands; Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, Utrechtseweg 297, De Bilt, 3731 GA, Netherlands; Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Department of Physics, Utrecht University, Princetonplein 5, Utrecht, 3584 CC, Netherlands; Department of Water Engineering, UNESCO-IHE, Delft, 3015 DA, Netherlands; Water Engineering and Management, University of Twente, Enschede, 7500 AE, Netherlands; Harbour, Coastal and Offshore Engineering, Deltares, Delft, 2600 MH, Netherlands
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Verschuur J.,Le Bars D.,Katsman C.A.,et al. Implications of ambiguity in Antarctic ice sheet dynamics for future coastal erosion estimates: a probabilistic assessment[J],2020.
APA	Verschuur J..,Le Bars D..,Katsman C.A..,de Vries S..,Ranasinghe R..,...&Aarninkhof S.G.J..(2020).Implications of ambiguity in Antarctic ice sheet dynamics for future coastal erosion estimates: a probabilistic assessment.Climatic Change.
MLA	Verschuur J.,et al."Implications of ambiguity in Antarctic ice sheet dynamics for future coastal erosion estimates: a probabilistic assessment".Climatic Change (2020).