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| DOI | 10.1007/s10584-020-02824-0 |
| Cause of death variation under the shared socioeconomic pathways | |
| Sellers S. | |
| 发表日期 | 2020 |
| ISSN | 0165-0009 |
| 英文摘要 | Climate change will create numerous risks for human health, including impacts associated with temperature extremes, diarrheal diseases, and undernutrition. Such risks, along with other socioeconomic and development trends, will affect cause-of-death patterns experienced in the coming decades. This study explores future mortality trends using the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) framework, a widely utilized tool for understanding socioeconomic development trends in a world with climate change. Existing projections for GDP, urbanization, and demographic trends based on SSP narratives are incorporated into an integrated assessment model, International Futures (IFs), in order to project mortality levels by cause of death for all countries from 2020 to 2100. Under more optimistic SSPs, non-communicable diseases (NCDs) rise as a proportion of all deaths, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, while more pessimistic SSPs suggest a continued high burden of largely preventable communicable diseases. In high-income countries, significant continued burdens of NCDs are projected for the remainder of the century under all SSPs. Comparisons are also made to recent cause-of-death projections from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) to assess how the IFs and IHME models vary. © 2020, Springer Nature B.V. |
| 英文关键词 | Demography; Health; International Futures; Mortality; Traffic accident |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| scopus关键词 | Climate change; Diseases; Health risks; Communicable disease; Demographic trends; Development trends; Integrated assessment models; Low and middle income countries; Non-communicable disease; Socio-economic development; Temperature extremes; Economic and social effects |
| 来源期刊 | Climatic Change
 |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147309 |
| 作者单位 | Center for Health and the Global Environment, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Sellers S.. Cause of death variation under the shared socioeconomic pathways[J],2020. |
| APA | Sellers S..(2020).Cause of death variation under the shared socioeconomic pathways.Climatic Change. |
| MLA | Sellers S.."Cause of death variation under the shared socioeconomic pathways".Climatic Change (2020). |
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