气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Does comprehensive evaluation of hydrological models influence projected changes of mean and high flows in the Godavari River basin?

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s10584-020-02847-7
	Does comprehensive evaluation of hydrological models influence projected changes of mean and high flows in the Godavari River basin?
	Mishra V.; Shah H.; López M.R.R.; Lobanova A.; Krysanova V.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0165-0009
英文摘要	Understanding the projected changes in the mean and high flows remains a significant challenge due to uncertainty arising from global climate models (GCMs) and hydrological models. Moreover, the calibration approaches used for hydrological models can influence the climate change impact assessment. We use the combination of three hydrological models, four global climate models, and two RCPs (2.6 and 8.5) to analyze the projected changes in mean flow, high flow, and the frequency of high flow under the projected future climate in the Godavari River basin (GRB) until the gauge Tekra. The two evaluation approaches: a simple approach (TASK A) based on the calibration and validation at a single streamflow gauge station and a comprehensive approach (TASK B) based on multi-variable and multisite calibration and validation and trend analysis were employed to evaluate the hydrological models. The differences between the projected changes in mean and high flows calculated using models after TASK A and TASK B were estimated. Our results show that the differences can be up to 10–13% in mean annual flow and high flow, and up to 40% in high flow frequency. The comprehensively evaluated hydrological models were chosen for impact assessment, and they project increases in mean and high flows, and the frequency of high flow at all four gauge stations in the GRB. The projected increases are higher under RCP 8.5 and in the End century (2071–2100). Our results demonstrate the importance of the comprehensive evaluation of hydrological models in advance of climate change impact assessment. © 2020, Springer Nature B.V.
英文关键词	Climate change; Godavari River basin; High flow; Indian River basin; Model calibration; VIC model
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Calibration; Climate change; Gages; Watersheds; Calibration and validations; Climate change impact assessments; Comprehensive evaluation; Evaluation approach; Global climate model; Hydrological models; Impact assessments; Multi-site calibration; Climate models
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147301
作者单位	Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Gandhinagar, Palaj, Gandhinagar, Gujarat, India; Earth Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology Gandhinagar, Palaj, Gandhinagar, Gujarat, India; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Mishra V.,Shah H.,López M.R.R.,et al. Does comprehensive evaluation of hydrological models influence projected changes of mean and high flows in the Godavari River basin?[J],2020.
APA	Mishra V.,Shah H.,López M.R.R.,Lobanova A.,&Krysanova V..(2020).Does comprehensive evaluation of hydrological models influence projected changes of mean and high flows in the Godavari River basin?.Climatic Change.
MLA	Mishra V.,et al."Does comprehensive evaluation of hydrological models influence projected changes of mean and high flows in the Godavari River basin?".Climatic Change (2020).