气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Impacts of hydrological model calibration on projected hydrological changes under climate change—a multi-model assessment in three large river basins

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DOI	10.1007/s10584-020-02872-6
	Impacts of hydrological model calibration on projected hydrological changes under climate change—a multi-model assessment in three large river basins
	Huang S.; Shah H.; Naz B.S.; Shrestha N.; Mishra V.; Daggupati P.; Ghimire U.; Vetter T.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0165-0009
英文摘要	This study aimed to investigate the influence of hydrological model calibration/validation on discharge projections for three large river basins (the Rhine, Upper Mississippi and Upper Yellow). Three hydrological models (HMs), which have been firstly calibrated against the monthly discharge at the outlet of each basin (simple calibration), were re-calibrated against the daily discharge at the outlet and intermediate gauges under contrast climate conditions simultaneously (enhanced calibration). In addition, the models were validated in terms of hydrological indicators of interest (median, low and high flows) as well as actual evapotranspiration in the historical period. The models calibrated using both calibration methods were then driven by the same bias corrected climate projections from five global circulation models (GCMs) under four Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCPs). The hydrological changes of the indicators were represented by the ensemble median, ensemble mean and ensemble weighted means of all combinations of HMs and GCMs under each RCP. The results showed moderate (5–10%) to strong influence (> 10%) of the calibration methods on the ensemble medians/means for the Mississippi, minor to moderate (up to 10%) influence for the Yellow and minor (< 5%) influence for the Rhine. In addition, the enhanced calibration/validation method reduced the shares of uncertainty related to HMs for three indicators in all basins when the strict weighting method was used. It also showed that the successful enhanced calibration had the potential to reduce the uncertainty of hydrological projections, especially when the HM uncertainty was significant after the simple calibration. © 2020, The Author(s).
英文关键词	ANOVA analysis; Runoff quantile; SWAT; SWIM; VIC
语种	英语
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147300
作者单位	The Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE), PO Box 5091, Majorstua, Oslo, 0301, Norway; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany; Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Gandhinagar, Gujarat, India; Juelich Research Center GmbH, Institute of Bio- and Geosciences: Agrosphere (IBG 3), Juelich, 52425, Germany; Watershed Research Group, School of Engineering, University of Guelph, Guelph, Canada
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Huang S.,Shah H.,Naz B.S.,等. Impacts of hydrological model calibration on projected hydrological changes under climate change—a multi-model assessment in three large river basins[J],2020.
APA	Huang S..,Shah H..,Naz B.S..,Shrestha N..,Mishra V..,...&Vetter T..(2020).Impacts of hydrological model calibration on projected hydrological changes under climate change—a multi-model assessment in three large river basins.Climatic Change.
MLA	Huang S.,et al."Impacts of hydrological model calibration on projected hydrological changes under climate change—a multi-model assessment in three large river basins".Climatic Change (2020).