气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Climate extremes may be more important than climate means when predicting species range shifts

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DOI	10.1007/s10584-020-02868-2
	Climate extremes may be more important than climate means when predicting species range shifts
	Germain S.J.; Lutz J.A.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0165-0009
英文摘要	It is well known that temperatures across the globe are rising, but climatic conditions are becoming more variable as well. Forecasts of species range shifts, however, often focus on average climatic changes while ignoring increasing climatic variability. In particular, many species distribution models use space-for-time substitution, which focuses exclusively on the effect of average climatic conditions on the target species across a geographic range, and is blind to the possibility of range-wide population collapse with increasing drought frequency, drought severity, or climate effects on other co-occurring species. Relegated to assessments of broad demographic patterns that ignore underlying biological responses to increasing climatic variability, this prevalent method of distribution forecasting may systematically underpredict climate change impacts. We compare six models of survival and abundance of a subcanopy tree species, Taxus brevifolia, over 40 years of past climate change to disentangle multiple sources of uncertainty: model formulation, scale of climate effect, and level of biological organization. We show that drought extremes increased Taxus individual- and population-scale mortality across a wide geographic climate gradient, precluding detection of a monotonic relationship with average climate. Individual-scale climatic extremes models derived from longitudinal data had the highest predictive accuracy (82%), whereas mean climate models had the lowest accuracy (< 65%). Our results highlight that conclusions drawn from forecasts of average warming alone likely underpredict climate change impacts by ignoring indicators of range-wide population declines for species sensitive to increasing climatic variability. © 2020, Springer Nature B.V.
英文关键词	Longitudinal data; Permanent sample plots; Population decline; Smithsonian ForestGEO; Taxus brevifolia; Wind River Forest Dynamics Plot (WFDP)
语种	英语
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147298
作者单位	Department of Wildland Resources, Utah State University, Logan, UT 84321, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Germain S.J.,Lutz J.A.. Climate extremes may be more important than climate means when predicting species range shifts[J],2020.
APA	Germain S.J.,&Lutz J.A..(2020).Climate extremes may be more important than climate means when predicting species range shifts.Climatic Change.
MLA	Germain S.J.,et al."Climate extremes may be more important than climate means when predicting species range shifts".Climatic Change (2020).