气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Effect of model calibration strategy on climate projections of hydrological indicators at a continental scale

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s10584-020-02874-4
	Effect of model calibration strategy on climate projections of hydrological indicators at a continental scale
	Hundecha Y.; Arheimer B.; Berg P.; Capell R.; Musuuza J.; Pechlivanidis I.; Photiadou C.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0165-0009
英文摘要	The effect of model calibration on the projection of climate change impact on hydrological indicators was assessed by employing variants of a pan-European hydrological model driven by forcing data from an ensemble of climate models. The hydrological model was calibrated using three approaches: calibration at the outlets of major river basins, regionalization through calibration of smaller scale catchments with unique catchment characteristics, and building a model ensemble by sampling model parameters from the regionalized model. The large-scale patterns of the change signals projected by all model variants were found to be similar for the different indicators. Catchment scale differences were observed between the projections of the model calibrated for the major river basins and the other two model variants. The distributions of the median change signals projected by the ensemble model were found to be similar to the distributions of the change signals projected by the regionalized model for all hydrological indicators. The study highlights that the spatial detail to which model calibration is performed can highly influence the catchment scale detail in the projection of climate change impact on hydrological indicators, with an absolute difference in the projections of the locally calibrated model and the model calibrated for the major river basins ranging between 0 and 55% for mean annual discharge, while it has little effect on the large-scale pattern of the projection. © 2020, The Author(s).
英文关键词	Climate change; Ensemble modeling; Europe; HYPE; Model calibration
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Catchments; Climate change; Rivers; Runoff; Watersheds; Absolute difference; Catchment characteristics; Climate change impact; Climate projection; Continental scale; Hydrological indicators; Hydrological modeling; Model calibration; Climate models
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147297
作者单位	Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Folkborgsvägen 17, Norrköping, 601 76, Sweden
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Hundecha Y.,Arheimer B.,Berg P.,et al. Effect of model calibration strategy on climate projections of hydrological indicators at a continental scale[J],2020.
APA	Hundecha Y..,Arheimer B..,Berg P..,Capell R..,Musuuza J..,...&Photiadou C..(2020).Effect of model calibration strategy on climate projections of hydrological indicators at a continental scale.Climatic Change.
MLA	Hundecha Y.,et al."Effect of model calibration strategy on climate projections of hydrological indicators at a continental scale".Climatic Change (2020).