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DOI	10.1007/s10584-020-02855-7
	Climate change impacts and adaptations for wheat employing multiple climate and crop modelsin Pakistan
	Hussain J.; Khaliq T.; Asseng S.; Saeed U.; Ahmad A.; Ahmad B.; Ahmad I.; Fahad M.; Awais M.; Ullah A.; Hoogenboom G.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0165-0009
英文摘要	Comparing outputs of multiple climate and crop models is an option to assess the uncertainty in simulations in a changing climate. The use of multiple wheat models under five plausible future simulated climatic conditions is rarely found in literature. CERES-Wheat, DSSAT-Nwheat, CROPSIM-Wheat, and APSIM-Wheat models were calibrated with observed data form eleven sowing dates (15 October to 15 March) of irrigated wheat trails at Faisalabad, Pakistan, to explore close to real climate changing impacts and adaptations. Twenty-nine GCM of CMIP5 were used to generate future climate scenarios during 2040–2069 under RCP 8.5. These scenarios were categorized among five climatic conditions (Cool/Wet, Cool/Dry, Hot/Wet, Hot/Dry, Middle) on the basis of monthly changes in temperature and rainfall of wheat season using a stretched distribution approach (STA). The five GCM at Faisalabad and Layyah were selected and used in the wheat multimodels set to CO2 571 ppm. In the future, the temperature of both locations will elevate 2–3 °C under the five climatic conditions, although Faisalabad will be drier and Layyah will be wetter as compared with baseline conditions. Climate change impacts were quantified on wheat sown on different dates, including 1 November, 15 November, and 30 November which showed average reduction at semiarid and arid environment by 23.5%, 19.8%, and 31%, respectively. Agronomic and breeding options offset the climate change impacts and also increased simulated yield about 20% in all climatic conditions. The number of GCMs was considerably different in each quadrate of STA, showing the uncertainty in possible future climatic conditions of both locations. Uncertainty among wheat models was higher at Layyah as compared with Faisalabad. Under Hot/Dry and Hot/Wet climatic conditions, wheat models were the most uncertain to simulate impacts and adaptations. DSSAT-Nwheat and APSIM-Wheat were the most and least sensitive to changing temperature among years and climatic conditions, respectively. © 2020, Springer Nature B.V.
英文关键词	Adaptations; Climate change; GCMs; Multimodels; Planting dates; Stretched distribution approach
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate models; Crops; Uncertainty analysis; Arid environments; Base-line conditions; Changing climate; Changing temperature; Climate change impact; Climatic conditions; Future climate scenarios; Impacts and adaptation; Climate change
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147296
作者单位	Agro-climatology laboratory, Department of agronomy, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, Pakistan; Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, United States; Pakistan Meteorological Department, Islamabad, Pakistan; Department of Agronomy, PMAS-Arid Agriculture University, Rawalpindi, Punjab, Pakistan; Islamia University Bahawalpur-Pakistan, Bahawalpur, Pakistan; Directorate of Agronomy, Ayub Agricultural Research Institute, Faisalabad, Punjab, Pakistan; Institute for Sustainable Food Systems 184 Rogers Hall, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Hussain J.,Khaliq T.,Asseng S.,et al. Climate change impacts and adaptations for wheat employing multiple climate and crop modelsin Pakistan[J],2020.
APA	Hussain J..,Khaliq T..,Asseng S..,Saeed U..,Ahmad A..,...&Hoogenboom G..(2020).Climate change impacts and adaptations for wheat employing multiple climate and crop modelsin Pakistan.Climatic Change.
MLA	Hussain J.,et al."Climate change impacts and adaptations for wheat employing multiple climate and crop modelsin Pakistan".Climatic Change (2020).