气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Implications of climate change mitigation strategies on international bioenergy trade

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s10584-020-02877-1
	Implications of climate change mitigation strategies on international bioenergy trade
	Daioglou V.; Muratori M.; Lamers P.; Fujimori S.; Kitous A.; Köberle A.C.; Bauer N.; Junginger M.; Kato E.; Leblanc F.; Mima S.; Wise M.; van Vuuren D.P.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0165-0009
英文摘要	Most climate change mitigation scenarios rely on increased use of bioenergy to decarbonize the energy system. Here we use results from the 33rd Energy Modeling Forum study (EMF-33) to investigate projected international bioenergy trade for different integrated assessment models across several climate change mitigation scenarios. Results show that in scenarios with no climate policy, international bioenergy trade is likely to increase over time, and becomes even more important when climate targets are set. More stringent climate targets, however, do not necessarily imply greater bioenergy trade compared to weaker targets, as final energy demand may be reduced. However, the scaling up of bioenergy trade happens sooner and at a faster rate with increasing climate target stringency. Across models, for a scenario likely to achieve a 2 °C target, 10–45 EJ/year out of a total global bioenergy consumption of 72–214 EJ/year are expected to be traded across nine world regions by 2050. While this projection is greater than the present trade volumes of coal or natural gas, it remains below the present trade of crude oil. This growth in bioenergy trade largely replaces the trade in fossil fuels (especially oil) which is projected to decrease significantly over the twenty-first century. As climate change mitigation scenarios often show diversified energy systems, in which numerous world regions can act as bioenergy suppliers, the projections do not necessarily lead to energy security concerns. Nonetheless, rapid growth in the trade of bioenergy is projected in strict climate mitigation scenarios, raising questions about infrastructure, logistics, financing options, and global standards for bioenergy production and trade. © 2020, The Author(s).
英文关键词	Bioenergy trade; Climate policy; EMF; Energy security; Integrated assessment models; Scenario analysis
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate models; Commerce; Energy security; Fossil fuels; Bioenergy productions; Climate change mitigation; Climate mitigations; Climate policy; Climate targets; Energy systems; Global standards; Integrated assessment models; Climate change
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147295
作者单位	PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, PO Box 30314, The Hague, 2500 GH, Netherlands; Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Princetonlaan 8a, Utrecht, 3584 CB, Netherlands; National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO, United States; Department of Environmental Engineering, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan; National Institute for Environmental Studies, Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8506, Japan; Joint Research Centre of the European Commission, Seville, Spain; Energy Planning Program, Graduate School of Engineering, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany; The Institute of Applied Energy, Minato, Tokyo, 105-0003, Japan; International Research Center on the Environment and Development (CIRED), Nogent-sur-Marne, France; GAEL, CNRS, Grenoble INP, INRA, Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Saint Martin d’Hères, 38400, France; Joint Global Change...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Daioglou V.,Muratori M.,Lamers P.,et al. Implications of climate change mitigation strategies on international bioenergy trade[J],2020.
APA	Daioglou V..,Muratori M..,Lamers P..,Fujimori S..,Kitous A..,...&van Vuuren D.P..(2020).Implications of climate change mitigation strategies on international bioenergy trade.Climatic Change.
MLA	Daioglou V.,et al."Implications of climate change mitigation strategies on international bioenergy trade".Climatic Change (2020).