气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): How a typical West African day in the future-climate compares with current-climate conditions in a convection-permitting and parameterised convection climate model

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DOI	10.1007/s10584-020-02881-5
	How a typical West African day in the future-climate compares with current-climate conditions in a convection-permitting and parameterised convection climate model
	Fitzpatrick R.G.J.; Parker D.J.; Marsham J.H.; Rowell D.P.; Jackson L.S.; Finney D.; Deva C.; Tucker S.; Stratton R.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0165-0009
英文摘要	Current-climate precipitation and temperature extremes have been identified by decision makers in West Africa as among the more impactful weather events causing lasting socioeconomic damage. In this article, we use a plausible future-climate scenario (RCP8.5) for the end of the twenty-first century to explore the relative commonness of such extremes under global warming. The analysis presented considers what a typical day in the future climate will feel like relative to current extrema. Across much of West Africa, we see that the typical future-climate day has maximum and minimum temperatures greater than 99.5% of currently experienced values. This finding exists for most months but is particularly pronounced during the Boreal spring and summer. The typical future precipitation event has a daily rainfall rate greater than 95% of current storms. These findings exist in both a future scenario model run with and without parameterised convection, and for many of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project version 5 ensemble members. Additionally, agronomic monsoon onset is projected to occur later and have greater inter-annual variability in the future. Our findings suggest far more extreme conditions in future climate over West Africa. The projected changes in temperature and precipitation could have serious socioeconomic implications, stressing the need for effective mitigation given the potential lack of adaptation pathways available to decision makers. © 2020, The Author(s).
英文关键词	Africa; Climate change; Convection-permitting; Impacts; Precipitation; Sahel
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Decision making; Global warming; Precipitation (meteorology); Climate condition; Extreme conditions; Future climate scenarios; Interannual variability; Maximum and minimum temperatures; Precipitation events; Scenario Modeling; Temperature extremes; Climate models
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147283
作者单位	Institute of Climate and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom; Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Fitzpatrick R.G.J.,Parker D.J.,Marsham J.H.,et al. How a typical West African day in the future-climate compares with current-climate conditions in a convection-permitting and parameterised convection climate model[J],2020.
APA	Fitzpatrick R.G.J..,Parker D.J..,Marsham J.H..,Rowell D.P..,Jackson L.S..,...&Stratton R..(2020).How a typical West African day in the future-climate compares with current-climate conditions in a convection-permitting and parameterised convection climate model.Climatic Change.
MLA	Fitzpatrick R.G.J.,et al."How a typical West African day in the future-climate compares with current-climate conditions in a convection-permitting and parameterised convection climate model".Climatic Change (2020).