气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Comparing public perceptions of sea level rise with scientific projections across five states of the U.S. Gulf Coast region

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s10584-020-02893-1
	Comparing public perceptions of sea level rise with scientific projections across five states of the U.S. Gulf Coast region
	Shao W.; Moftakhari H.; Moradkhani H.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0165-0009
英文摘要	Sea level rise (SLR) in the twenty-first century poses fundamental risks to coastal residents. The US Gulf of Mexico Coast (Gulf Coast) is among the regions experiencing the most rapid relative SLR. Beyond its increasing exposure to SLR and related coastal flooding, the Gulf Coast is home to a large population and displays high social vulnerability. How the coastal population in this vulnerable region perceives the impending risks posed by SLR warrants further examination. Do coastal residents’ perceptions of SLR conform to the scientific projections? We adopt an integrative approach based on a 2019 survey merged with contextual data including percentage of population living within the Special Flood Hazard Area (SFHA) and social vulnerability at the county level, both of which are extracted from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. We find that public risk perceptions of sea level change are influenced by political predisposition, with Republicans being less likely than Democrats to expect SLR in the future. Moreover, SLR remains a temporally distant issue among coastal residents. We then directly compare public expectations and scientific estimations of SLR in five states of the US Gulf Coast region and find that coastal residents in states that have experienced faster SLR in the past are more optimistic about future SLR by underestimating its magnitude compared to those experiencing slower SLR. Moreover, we find that people likely conflate the severity with likelihood of SLR risk. The contextual force represented by percentage of population living within the SFHA designated by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) can significantly influence individuals’ estimations of future SLR, with higher percentages leading to higher estimates. We suspect that the SFHA has become a powerful risk communication tool that influences coastal residents’ judgments about future risk. © 2020, Springer Nature B.V.
英文关键词	Public perceptions; Scientific projections; Sea level rise; The U.S. Gulf Coast
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Disease control; Floods; Population statistics; Risk management; Sea level; Centers for disease control and preventions; Coastal population; Contextual forces; Federal Emergency Management Agency; Public perception; Risk communication; Social vulnerability; Vulnerable regions; Risk perception
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147282
作者单位	Department of Geography, University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL, United States; Center for Complex Hydrosystems Research, University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL, United States; Department of Civil, Construction and Environmental Engineering, University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Shao W.,Moftakhari H.,Moradkhani H.. Comparing public perceptions of sea level rise with scientific projections across five states of the U.S. Gulf Coast region[J],2020.
APA	Shao W.,Moftakhari H.,&Moradkhani H..(2020).Comparing public perceptions of sea level rise with scientific projections across five states of the U.S. Gulf Coast region.Climatic Change.
MLA	Shao W.,et al."Comparing public perceptions of sea level rise with scientific projections across five states of the U.S. Gulf Coast region".Climatic Change (2020).