气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Integrating archival analysis; observational data; and climate projections to assess extreme event impacts in Alaska

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s10584-020-02907-y
	Integrating archival analysis; observational data; and climate projections to assess extreme event impacts in Alaska
	Kettle N.P.; Walsh J.E.; Heaney L.; Thoman R.L.; Jr; Redilla K.; Carroll L.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0165-0009
英文摘要	Understanding potential risks, vulnerabilities, and impacts to weather extremes and climate change are key information needs for coastal planners and managers in support of climate adaptation. Assessing historical trends and potential socio-economic impacts is especially difficult in the Arctic given limitations on availability of weather observations and historical impacts. This study utilizes a novel interdisciplinary approach that integrates archival analysis, observational data, and climate model downscaling to synthesize information on historical and projected impacts of extreme weather events in Nome, Alaska. Over 300 impacts (1990–2018) are identified based on analyses of the Nome Nugget newspaper articles and Storm Data entries. Historical impacts centered on transportation, community activities, and utilities. Analysis of observed and ERA5 reanalysis data indicates that impacts are frequently associated with high wind, extreme low temperatures, heavy snowfall events, and winter days above freezing. Downscaled output (2020–2100) from two climate models suggests that there will be changes in the frequency and timing of these extreme weather events. For example, extreme cold temperature is projected to decrease through the 2040s and then rarely occurs afterwards, and extreme wind events show little change before the 2070s. Significantly, our findings also reveal that not all weather-related extremes will change monotonically throughout the twenty-first century, such as extreme snowfall events that will increase through the 2030s before declining in the 2040s. The dynamical nature of projected changes in extreme events has implications for climate adaptation planning. © 2020, The Author(s).
英文关键词	Alaska; Archival analysis; Climate; Extreme events; Socio-economic impacts; Weather
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate models; Extreme weather; Snow; Weather information services; Archival analysis; Climate projection; Community activities; Extreme weather events; Historical trends; Observational data; Socio-economic impacts; Weather observations; Climate change
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147275
作者单位	International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, United States; Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy, Fairbanks, AK, United States; Honors College, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Kettle N.P.,Walsh J.E.,Heaney L.,et al. Integrating archival analysis; observational data; and climate projections to assess extreme event impacts in Alaska[J],2020.
APA	Kettle N.P..,Walsh J.E..,Heaney L..,Thoman R.L..,Jr.,...&Carroll L..(2020).Integrating archival analysis; observational data; and climate projections to assess extreme event impacts in Alaska.Climatic Change.
MLA	Kettle N.P.,et al."Integrating archival analysis; observational data; and climate projections to assess extreme event impacts in Alaska".Climatic Change (2020).