气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Potential impacts of climate change on wind and solar electricity generation in Texas

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s10584-020-02891-3
	Potential impacts of climate change on wind and solar electricity generation in Texas
	Losada Carreño I.; Craig M.T.; Rossol M.; Ashfaq M.; Batibeniz F.; Haupt S.E.; Draxl C.; Hodge B.-M.; Brancucci C.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0165-0009
英文摘要	Wind and solar energy sources are climate and weather dependent, therefore susceptible to a changing climate. We quantify the impacts of climate change on wind and solar electricity generation under high concentrations of greenhouse gases in Texas. We employ mid-twenty-first century climate projections and a high-resolution numerical weather prediction model to generate weather variables in the future and produce wind and solar generation time series. We find that mid-twenty-first century projections based on five global climate models agree on the multiyear average increases across Texas in direct normal irradiance, global horizontal irradiance, surface air temperature, and 100-m wind speed of up to 5%, 4%, 10%, and 1%, respectively. These changes lead to multiyear average relative changes across Texas of − 0.6 to + 2.5% and of + 1.3 to + 3.5% in solar and wind capacity factors, respectively, with significant regional, seasonal, and diurnal differences. Areas with low solar resource show an increase in solar capacity factors but reductions in wind capacity factors. Areas with high solar resource show reductions in solar capacity factors. The spatial and temporal differences in our results highlight the importance of using high-resolution data sets to study the potential impacts of climate change on wind and solar power. © 2020, Springer Nature B.V.
英文关键词	Climate change; Solar power; Wind power
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate models; Electric power generation; Greenhouse gases; Predictive analytics; Solar energy; Solar power generation; Weather forecasting; Wind; Direct normal irradiances; Global climate model; High resolution data; High resolution numerical weather predictions; Surface air temperatures; Temporal differences; Wind and solar power; Wind capacity factor; Climate change
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147259
作者单位	National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO, United States; Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, United States; University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, United States; Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN, United States; National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO, United States; University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States; encoord Inc., Denver, CO, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Losada Carreño I.,Craig M.T.,Rossol M.,et al. Potential impacts of climate change on wind and solar electricity generation in Texas[J],2020.
APA	Losada Carreño I..,Craig M.T..,Rossol M..,Ashfaq M..,Batibeniz F..,...&Brancucci C..(2020).Potential impacts of climate change on wind and solar electricity generation in Texas.Climatic Change.
MLA	Losada Carreño I.,et al."Potential impacts of climate change on wind and solar electricity generation in Texas".Climatic Change (2020).