Climate Change Data Portal
DOI | 10.1007/s10584-019-02558-8 |
Probabilistic assessment and projections of US weather and climate risks and economic damages | |
Franzke C.L.E.; Czupryna M. | |
发表日期 | 2020 |
ISSN | 0165-0009 |
起始页码 | 503 |
结束页码 | 515 |
卷号 | 158期号:2020-03-04 |
英文摘要 | Weather and climate extremes cause significant economic damages and fatalities. Over the last few decades, the frequency of these disasters and their economic damages have significantly increased in the USA. The prediction of the future evolution of these damages and their relation to global warming and US economic growth is essential for deciding on cost-efficient mitigation pathways. Here we show using a probabilistic extreme value statistics framework that both the increase in US Gross Domestic Product per capita and global warming are significant covariates in probabilistically modeling the increase in economic damages. We also provide evidence that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation affects the number of fatalities. Using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios, we estimate the potential future economic risks. We find that by 2060, the extreme risks (as measured by 200-year effective return level) will have increased by 3–5.4 times. The damage costs due to extreme risks are projected to be between 0.1 and 0.7% of US Gross Domestic Product by 2060 and could reach 5–16% by 2100. © 2019, Springer Nature B.V. |
英文关键词 | Climate extremes; Generalized Pareto distribution; Mortality; Non-stationarity; Weather extremes |
语种 | 英语 |
scopus关键词 | Economic and social effects; Economics; Global warming; Pareto principle; Risk assessment; Risk perception; Climate extremes; Generalized Pareto Distributions; Mortality; Non-stationarities; Weather extremes; Damage detection; climate prediction; extreme event; global warming; Gross Domestic Product; hazard assessment; hazard management; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; mitigation; natural disaster; Pacific Decadal Oscillation; probability; United States |
来源期刊 | Climatic Change |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147253 |
作者单位 | Meteorological Institute and Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany; Faculty of Finance and Law, Cracow University of Economics, Cracow, Poland |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Franzke C.L.E.,Czupryna M.. Probabilistic assessment and projections of US weather and climate risks and economic damages[J],2020,158(2020-03-04). |
APA | Franzke C.L.E.,&Czupryna M..(2020).Probabilistic assessment and projections of US weather and climate risks and economic damages.Climatic Change,158(2020-03-04). |
MLA | Franzke C.L.E.,et al."Probabilistic assessment and projections of US weather and climate risks and economic damages".Climatic Change 158.2020-03-04(2020). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
个性服务 |
推荐该条目 |
保存到收藏夹 |
导出为Endnote文件 |
谷歌学术 |
谷歌学术中相似的文章 |
[Franzke C.L.E.]的文章 |
[Czupryna M.]的文章 |
百度学术 |
百度学术中相似的文章 |
[Franzke C.L.E.]的文章 |
[Czupryna M.]的文章 |
必应学术 |
必应学术中相似的文章 |
[Franzke C.L.E.]的文章 |
[Czupryna M.]的文章 |
相关权益政策 |
暂无数据 |
收藏/分享 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。