气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Modelling the climate; water and socio-economic drivers of farmer exit in the Murray-Darling Basin

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s10584-019-02601-8
	Modelling the climate; water and socio-economic drivers of farmer exit in the Murray-Darling Basin
	Wheeler S.A.; Xu Y.; Zuo A.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0165-0009
起始页码	551
结束页码	574
卷号	158 期号:2020-03-04
英文摘要	Absolute farm numbers all over the world have been decreasing over time, and in many countries, this is a source of concern for rural communities. In particular, the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) in Australia has faced considerable change in the form of increased temperatures and drought severity, reduced irrigation water diversions, declining real agricultural commodity prices, and declining rural community services. This study applies spatial regression modelling at the regional level to assess the impact of weather, economic, and water factors on net farmer number changes over a 20-year period from 1991 to 2011, with climate risk measured using data from 1961 onwards. Our analysis suggests that the direct drivers of farmer exit in local areas were climatic (e.g. increases in maximum temperature and increased drought risk (through decreased long-term precipitation skewness and increased long-term precipitation kurtosis)) and socio-economic (e.g. decreases in commodity output prices, increased urbanisation and higher unemployment). Contrary to the current narrative, changes in irrigation water diversions and water trade movements had no significant impact on MDB farmer exit. © 2019, Springer Nature B.V.
英文关键词	Australia; Climate; Farm exit; Murray-Darling Basin Plan; Spatial Durbin model; Water diversions
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate models; Costs; Drought; Economic analysis; Flood control; Higher order statistics; Irrigation; Risk assessment; Water supply; Australia; Climate; Murray-Darling Basin; Spatial Durbin models; Water diversions; Rural areas; climate change; drought; model; modeling; rural population; socioeconomic conditions; urbanization; Australia; Murray-Darling Basin
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147245
作者单位	Centre for Global Food and Resources, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA 5001, Australia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wheeler S.A.,Xu Y.,Zuo A.. Modelling the climate; water and socio-economic drivers of farmer exit in the Murray-Darling Basin[J],2020,158(2020-03-04).
APA	Wheeler S.A.,Xu Y.,&Zuo A..(2020).Modelling the climate; water and socio-economic drivers of farmer exit in the Murray-Darling Basin.Climatic Change,158(2020-03-04).
MLA	Wheeler S.A.,et al."Modelling the climate; water and socio-economic drivers of farmer exit in the Murray-Darling Basin".Climatic Change 158.2020-03-04(2020).