气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Probable maximum precipitation in a warming climate over North America in CanRCM4 and CRCM5

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DOI	10.1007/s10584-019-02591-7
	Probable maximum precipitation in a warming climate over North America in CanRCM4 and CRCM5
	Ben Alaya M.A.; Zwiers F.W.; Zhang X.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0165-0009
起始页码	611
结束页码	629
卷号	158 期号:2020-03-04
英文摘要	In the context of climate change and projected increase in global temperature, the atmosphere’s water holding capacity is expected to increase at the Clausius-Clapeyron (C-C) rate by about 7% per 1 °C warming. Such an increase may lead to more intense extreme precipitation events and thus directly affect the probable maximum precipitation (PMP), a parameter that is often used for dam safety and civil engineering purposes. We therefore use a statistically motivated approach that quantifies uncertainty and accounts for nonstationarity, which allows us to determine the rate of change of PMP per 1 °C warming. This approach, which is based on a bivariate extreme value model of precipitable water (PW) and precipitation efficiency (PE), provides interpretation of how PW and PE may evolve in a warming climate. Nonstationarity is accounted for in this approach by including temperature as a covariate in the bivariate extreme value model. The approach is demonstrated by evaluating and comparing projected changes to 6-hourly PMP from two Canadian regional climate models (RCMs), CanRCM4 and CRCM5, over North America. The main results suggest that, on the continental scale, PMP increases in these models at a rate of approximately 4% per 1 °C warming, which is somewhat lower than the C-C rate. At the continental scale, PW extremes increase on average at the rate of 5% per 1 °C near surface warming for both RCMs. Most of the PMP increase is caused by the increase in PW extremes with only a minor contribution from changes in PE extremes. Nevertheless, substantial deviations from the average rate of change in PMP rates occur in some areas, and these are mostly caused by sensitivity of PE extremes to near surface warming in these regions. © 2019, Springer Nature B.V.
英文关键词	Climate change; Nonstationarity; Probable maximum precipitation
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate models; Precipitation (meteorology); Bivariate extreme value models; Extreme precipitation events; Global temperatures; Non-stationarities; Precipitation efficiency; Probable maximum precipitation; Regional climate models; Water holding capacity; Climate change; climate change; climate modeling; precipitable water; precipitation (climatology); regional climate; temperature effect; North America
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147242
作者单位	Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, University of Victoria, PO Box 1700, Stn CSC, Victoria, BC V8W2Y2, Canada; Climate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change, Toronto, ON M3H 5T4, Canada
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ben Alaya M.A.,Zwiers F.W.,Zhang X.. Probable maximum precipitation in a warming climate over North America in CanRCM4 and CRCM5[J],2020,158(2020-03-04).
APA	Ben Alaya M.A.,Zwiers F.W.,&Zhang X..(2020).Probable maximum precipitation in a warming climate over North America in CanRCM4 and CRCM5.Climatic Change,158(2020-03-04).
MLA	Ben Alaya M.A.,et al."Probable maximum precipitation in a warming climate over North America in CanRCM4 and CRCM5".Climatic Change 158.2020-03-04(2020).