气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Shifts in migration phenology under climate change: temperature vs. abundance effects in birds

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DOI	10.1007/s10584-020-02668-8
	Shifts in migration phenology under climate change: temperature vs. abundance effects in birds
	Koleček J.; Adamík P.; Reif J.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0165-0009
起始页码	177
结束页码	194
卷号	159 期号:2
英文摘要	In migratory birds, increasing temperatures have been linked to earlier arrival to breeding sites, enabling an earlier start of breeding and leading to changes in abundance. Long-term population trends may thus reflect a species capacity to respond to climate change. However, when a species is more abundant, it is also more easily detectable by observers, leading to an earlier detection of its arrival. Therefore, investigations of the drivers of shifts in apparent arrival dates to breeding sites and population trends remain challenging. Here, we formulate predictions aiming to disentangle the different drivers, analysing spring arrival dates and population changes of 52 migratory birds in a Central European country, the Czech Republic, from 1994 to 2017. If shifts in arrival dates are driven by increasing spring temperatures, migrants should arrive earlier in a warmer year and their abundance should increase in the subsequent year due to earlier breeding. If earlier migrant arrival results from their increased detectability caused by higher abundance, then migrants should arrive earlier in the same years when their abundance is high. We found clear support for the former prediction, indicating that climate change drives the earlier arrival of migrants irrespective of changes in their detectability. Moreover, species advancing their arrival to a greater degree had more positive population trends, and responses to rising spring temperatures in the Czech Republic became weaker with increasing migration distance. Therefore, climate change drives population trends of migratory species according to their capacity to adjust their arrival date to variations in spring temperatures. © 2020, Springer Nature B.V.
英文关键词	Arrival date; Citizen science; Detectability; Global warming; Long-term study; Population trend
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Global warming; Arrival date; Citizen science; Detectability; Long term study; Population trend; Birds; abundance; arrival date; breeding; climate change; global warming; long-term change; migratory population; phenology; temperature effect; trend analysis; Czech Republic; Aves
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147222
作者单位	Institute for Environmental Studies, Charles University, Faculty of Science, Benátská 2, Prague, 12801, Czech Republic; Institute of Vertebrate Biology, The Czech Academy of Sciences, Květná 8, Brno, 60365, Czech Republic; Czech Society for Ornithology, Na Bělidle 34, Prague, 15000, Czech Republic; Department of Zoology and Laboratory of Ornithology, Palacký University in Olomouc, Faculty of Science, 17. listopadu 50, Olomouc, 77146, Czech Republic; Museum of Natural History, nám. Republiky 5, Olomouc, 77173, Czech Republic
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Koleček J.,Adamík P.,Reif J.. Shifts in migration phenology under climate change: temperature vs. abundance effects in birds[J],2020,159(2).
APA	Koleček J.,Adamík P.,&Reif J..(2020).Shifts in migration phenology under climate change: temperature vs. abundance effects in birds.Climatic Change,159(2).
MLA	Koleček J.,et al."Shifts in migration phenology under climate change: temperature vs. abundance effects in birds".Climatic Change 159.2(2020).