气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Changing yields in the Central United States under climate and technological change

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DOI	10.1007/s10584-019-02567-7
	Changing yields in the Central United States under climate and technological change
	Burchfield E.; Matthews-Pennanen N.; Schoof J.; Lant C.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0165-0009
起始页码	329
结束页码	346
卷号	159 期号:3
英文摘要	This paper projects the race between technologically driven increases in crop yields and changing climatic conditions in the central USA, one of the world’s most productive agricultural regions. Using the highest, average, and lowest decadal rates of technologically driven increases in crop yields over the 1980 to 2017 period, we develop spatially explicit yield scenarios to the end of the twenty-first century under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. We find that with static technological innovation, severe climate change will decrease yields by an average of 22.4% (26.1 bu. ac−1) for maize, 27.9% (8.83 bu. ac−1) for soybeans, and 20% (7.14 bu. ac−1) for winter wheat in the central USA; however, with even the lowest rates of technological yield growth, yields increase by an average of 25.0% (40.5 bu. ac−1) for maize and 30.2% (14.2 bu. ac−1) for soybeans. We conclude that technology has the potential to overcome the negative impacts of climate change on the yields of maize, soybeans, and winter wheat in the central USA, but if these increases are to be environmentally sustainable, technological developments must be information-intensive rather than input-intensive. © 2019, Springer Nature B.V.
英文关键词	Agriculture; Central U.S; Climate change; Crop yields
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Agriculture; Crops; Central U.S; Climatic conditions; Crop yield; Spatially explicit; Technological change; Technological development; Technological innovation; Yield growth; Climate change; agricultural technology; climate change; climate effect; crop yield; innovation; maize; scenario analysis; soybean; wheat; United States; Glycine max; Triticum aestivum; Zea mays
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147217
作者单位	Department of Environmental Sciences, Emory University, 400 Dowman Drive, Atlanta, GA 30322, United States; Utah State University, Logan, UT, United States; Geography and Environmental Resources, Southern Illinois University, Faner Hall Mail Code 4524, Carbondale, IL 62901, United States; Department of Environment and Society, Quinney College of Natural Resources, Utah State University, 5215 Old Main Hill, Logan, UT 84322-5215, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Burchfield E.,Matthews-Pennanen N.,Schoof J.,et al. Changing yields in the Central United States under climate and technological change[J],2020,159(3).
APA	Burchfield E.,Matthews-Pennanen N.,Schoof J.,&Lant C..(2020).Changing yields in the Central United States under climate and technological change.Climatic Change,159(3).
MLA	Burchfield E.,et al."Changing yields in the Central United States under climate and technological change".Climatic Change 159.3(2020).