气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Potential impacts of climate change factors and agronomic adaptation strategies on wheat yields in central highlands of Ethiopia

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s10584-019-02627-y
	Potential impacts of climate change factors and agronomic adaptation strategies on wheat yields in central highlands of Ethiopia
	Araya A.; Prasad P.V.V.; Gowda P.H.; Djanaguiraman M.; Kassa A.H.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0165-0009
起始页码	461
结束页码	479
卷号	159 期号:3
英文摘要	The potential impacts of climate change on wheat were assessed for Kulmsa area in central highlands of Ethiopia using the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM)—wheat model. The objectives were to (i) evaluate the performance of wheat under increased temperatures with or without changes in rainfall and carbon dioxide (CO2) levels and (ii) assess the response of different wheat cultivars to projected future climates under improved management practices (optimal nitrogen rate, planting date, and density) (IMPs). The model was first calibrated and used to identify ranges of IMPs. Then, the model was used to (i) conduct sensitivity analysis of wheat in response to assumed elevated temperature (T), with and without change in rainfall and CO2 level, and to (ii) evaluate average effect of future worst-case climate change scenarios as predicted by an ensemble of three global climate models (GCM) under highest Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP8.5) for three future time frames, NF (2010–2039), MC (2040–2069), and EC (2070–2099). The simulation was evaluated for three wheat cultivars (“early”, “medium”, and “late”) relative to their corresponding baseline values under the selected IMPs. The baseline climate was represented by the long-term (1980–2009) dataset and CO2 of 360 μmol/mol. Results showed that increased temperature above 4 °C alone had strong negative impacts on yields under the IMPs when CO2 staying constant at the baseline level. In contrast, climate change simulations with GCM projections under IMPs and elevated CO2 effect showed that wheat yield remained unchanged (− 0.4 to + 9%) for all three genotypes. This suggests that the IMPs and elevated CO2 were able to reduce the negative effect of elevated T on wheat yield as T stress did not go beyond optimal T range for wheat. Overall, climate change may not reduce wheat production in the climate of the location of study in the near future, midcentury, or end century. © 2020, Springer Nature B.V.
英文关键词	Adaptation; APSIM; Carbon dioxide; Climate change; Models; Rainfall; Temperature; Wheat
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Agriculture; Carbon dioxide; Climate models; Models; Plants (botany); Rain; Sensitivity analysis; Temperature; Yield stress; Adaptation; Adaptation strategies; Agricultural production system; APSIM; Climate change scenarios; Climate change simulations; Increased temperature; Wheat; Climate change; agricultural modeling; agrometeorology; agronomy; carbon dioxide; climate change; climate modeling; crop yield; environmental factor; model validation; wheat; Ethiopian Highlands; Triticum aestivum
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147214
作者单位	Department of Agronomy, and Feed the Future Innovation Lab for Collaborative Research on Sustainable Intensification, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS, United States; Grazinglands Research Laboratory, United States Department of Agriculture–Agricultural Research Service El Reno, El Reno, OK, United States; Department of Crop Physiology, Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, 641003, India; Tigray Agricultural Research Institute, Mekelle Agricultural Research Center, Mekelle, Ethiopia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Araya A.,Prasad P.V.V.,Gowda P.H.,et al. Potential impacts of climate change factors and agronomic adaptation strategies on wheat yields in central highlands of Ethiopia[J],2020,159(3).
APA	Araya A.,Prasad P.V.V.,Gowda P.H.,Djanaguiraman M.,&Kassa A.H..(2020).Potential impacts of climate change factors and agronomic adaptation strategies on wheat yields in central highlands of Ethiopia.Climatic Change,159(3).
MLA	Araya A.,et al."Potential impacts of climate change factors and agronomic adaptation strategies on wheat yields in central highlands of Ethiopia".Climatic Change 159.3(2020).