气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The changing climate-migration relationship in China; 1989

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s10584-020-02657-x
	The changing climate-migration relationship in China; 1989–2011
	Gray C.; Hopping D.; Mueller V.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0165-0009
起始页码	103
结束页码	122
卷号	160 期号:1
英文摘要	A persistent concern about the social consequences of climate change is that large, vulnerable populations will be involuntarily displaced. Existing evidence suggests that changes in precipitation and temperature can increase migration in particular contexts, but the potential for this relationship to evolve over time alongside processes of adaptation and development has not been widely explored. To address this issue, we link longitudinal data from 20 thousand Chinese adults from 1989 to 2011 to external data on climate anomalies and use this linked dataset to explore how climatic effects on internal migration have changed over time while controlling for potential spatial and temporal confounders. We find that temperature anomalies initially displaced permanent migrants at the beginning of our study period, but that this effect had reversed by the end of the study period. A parallel analysis of income shares suggests that the explanation might lie in climate vulnerability shifting from agricultural to non-agricultural livelihood activities. Taken together with evidence from previous case studies, our results open the door to a potential future in which development and in situ adaptation allow climate-induced migration to decline over time, even as climate change unfolds. © 2020, Springer Nature B.V.
英文关键词	China; Migration; Precipitation; Temperature; Vulnerability
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Agriculture; Precipitation (chemical); Temperature; China; Climate anomalies; Climate vulnerability; Climate-induced migration; Migration; Social consequences; Temperature anomaly; Vulnerability; Climate change
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147199
作者单位	University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC, United States; Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, United States; International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Gray C.,Hopping D.,Mueller V.. The changing climate-migration relationship in China; 1989–2011[J],2020,160(1).
APA	Gray C.,Hopping D.,&Mueller V..(2020).The changing climate-migration relationship in China; 1989–2011.Climatic Change,160(1).
MLA	Gray C.,et al."The changing climate-migration relationship in China; 1989–2011".Climatic Change 160.1(2020).