气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Fiscal effects and the potential implications on economic growth of sea-level rise impacts and coastal zone protection

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s10584-020-02664-y
	Fiscal effects and the potential implications on economic growth of sea-level rise impacts and coastal zone protection
	Parrado R.; Bosello F.; Delpiazzo E.; Hinkel J.; Lincke D.; Brown S.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0165-0009
起始页码	283
结束页码	302
卷号	160 期号:2
英文摘要	Climate change impacts on coastal zones could be significant unless adaptation is undertaken. One particular macroeconomic dimension of sea level rise (SLR) impacts that has received no attention so far is the potential stress of SLR impacts on public budgets. Adaptation will require increased public expenditure to protect assets at risk and could put additional stress on public budgets. We analyse the macroeconomic effects of SLR adaptation and impacts on public budgets. We include fiscal indicators in a climate change impact assessment focusing on SLR impacts and adaptation costs using a computable general equilibrium model extended with a detailed description of the public sector. Coastal protection expenditure is financed issuing government bonds, meaning that coastal adaptation places an additional burden on public budgets. SLR impacts are examined using several scenarios linked to three different Representative Concentration Pathways: 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, and two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: SSP2 and SSP5. Future projections of direct damages of mean and extreme SLR and adaptation costs are generated by the Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment framework. Without adaptation, all regions of the world will suffer a loss and public deficits increase respect to the reference scenario. Higher deficits imply higher government borrowing from household savings reducing available resources for private investments therefore decreasing capital accumulation and growth. Adaptation benefits result from two mechanisms: (i) the avoided direct impacts, and (ii) a reduced public deficit effect. This allows for an increased capital accumulation, suggesting that support to adaptation in deficit spending might trigger positive effects on public finance sustainability. © 2020, Springer Nature B.V.
英文关键词	Adaptation; Climate change; Computable general equilibrium; Public budgets; Sea level rise; Sustainability
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Budget control; Climate change; Climate models; Coastal zones; Damage detection; Economics; Investments; Sea level; Sustainable development; Adaptation; Climate change impact assessments; Computable general equilibrium; Computable general equilibrium model; Impacts and adaptation; Public budget; Sea level rise; Vulnerability assessments; Shore protection; climate change; coastal zone; computable general equilibrium analysis; economic growth; finance; government; public sector; sustainability
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147197
作者单位	RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment, Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Via della Libertà, Venice, 12-30175, Italy; Ca’ Foscari University, Venice, Italy; University of Milan, Milan, Italy; Global Climate Forum, Berlin, Germany; University of Southampton, Southampton, United Kingdom; Bournemouth University, Bournemouth, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Parrado R.,Bosello F.,Delpiazzo E.,et al. Fiscal effects and the potential implications on economic growth of sea-level rise impacts and coastal zone protection[J],2020,160(2).
APA	Parrado R.,Bosello F.,Delpiazzo E.,Hinkel J.,Lincke D.,&Brown S..(2020).Fiscal effects and the potential implications on economic growth of sea-level rise impacts and coastal zone protection.Climatic Change,160(2).
MLA	Parrado R.,et al."Fiscal effects and the potential implications on economic growth of sea-level rise impacts and coastal zone protection".Climatic Change 160.2(2020).