气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): A global analysis of heat-related labour productivity losses under climate change

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s10584-020-02661-1
	A global analysis of heat-related labour productivity losses under climate change—implications for Germany’s foreign trade
	Knittel N.; Jury M.W.; Bednar-Friedl B.; Bachner G.; Steiner A.K.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0165-0009
起始页码	251
结束页码	269
卷号	160 期号:2
英文摘要	We investigate climate change impacts transferred via foreign trade to Germany, a country that is heavily engaged in international trade. Specifically, we look at temperature changes and the associated labour productivity losses at a global scale until 2050. We assess the effects on Germany’s imports and exports by means of a global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. To address uncertainty, we account for three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1, SSP2 and SSP3) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) using projections from five global climate models. We find that average annual labour productivity for high intensity work declines by up to 31% for RCP4.5 (and up to 38% for RCP8.5) in Southeast Asia and the Middle East by 2050, all relative to a 2050 baseline without climate change. As a consequence, for RCP8.5, Germany’s imports from regions outside Europe are lower by up to 2.46%, while imports from within Europe partly compensate this reduction. Also, Germany’s exports to regions outside Europe are lower, but total exports increase by up to 0.16% due to higher exports to EU regions. Germany’s GDP and welfare, however, are negatively affected with a loss of up to − 0.41% and − 0.46%, respectively. The results highlight that overall positive trade effects for Germany constitute a comparative improvement rather than an absolute gain with climate change. © 2020, The Author(s).
英文关键词	Climate change; Computable general equilibrium; Germany; Heat stress; International trade; Labour productivity shocks
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate models; International trade; Productivity; Climate change impact; Computable general equilibrium; Computable general equilibrium model; Germany; Global climate model; Heat stress; Labour productivities; Temperature changes; Climate change; climate effect; climate modeling; export; global climate; Gross Domestic Product; high temperature; import; labor productivity; socioeconomic impact; trade-environment relations; Germany; Middle East; Southeast Asia
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147196
作者单位	Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz, Brandhofgasse 5, Graz, 8010, Austria; Institute of economics, University of Graz, Graz, Austria; Institute for Geophysics, Astrophysics, and Meteorology/Institute of Physics, University of Graz, Graz, Austria
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Knittel N.,Jury M.W.,Bednar-Friedl B.,等. A global analysis of heat-related labour productivity losses under climate change—implications for Germany’s foreign trade[J],2020,160(2).
APA	Knittel N.,Jury M.W.,Bednar-Friedl B.,Bachner G.,&Steiner A.K..(2020).A global analysis of heat-related labour productivity losses under climate change—implications for Germany’s foreign trade.Climatic Change,160(2).
MLA	Knittel N.,et al."A global analysis of heat-related labour productivity losses under climate change—implications for Germany’s foreign trade".Climatic Change 160.2(2020).