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DOI	10.1007/s10584-020-02692-8
	The economic costs of Hurricane Harvey attributable to climate change
	Frame D.J.; Wehner M.F.; Noy I.; Rosier S.M.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0165-0009
起始页码	271
结束页码	281
卷号	160 期号:2
英文摘要	Hurricane Harvey is one of the costliest tropical cyclones in history. In this paper, we use a probabilistic event attribution framework to estimate the costs associated with Hurricane Harvey that are attributable to anthropogenic influence on the climate system. Results indicate that the “fraction of attributable risk” for the rainfall from Harvey was likely about at least a third with a preferable/best estimate of three quarters. With an average estimate of damages from Harvey assessed at about US$90bn, applying this fraction gives a best estimate of US$67bn, with a likely lower bound of at least US$30bn, of these damages that are attributable to the human influence on climate. This “bottom-up” event-based estimate of climate change damages contrasts sharply with the more “top-down” approach using integrated assessment models (IAMs) or global macroeconometric estimates: one IAM estimates annual climate change damages in the USA to be in the region of US$21.3bn. While the two approaches are not easily comparable, it is noteworthy that our “bottom-up” results estimate that one single extreme weather event contributes more to climate change damages in the USA than an entire year by the “top-down” method. Given that the “top-down” approach, at best, parameterizes but does not resolve the effects of extreme weather events, our findings suggest that the “bottom-up” approach is a useful avenue to pursue in future attempts to refine estimates of climate change damages. © 2020, The Author(s).
英文关键词	Climate change; Economic cost; Event Attribution; Hurricane Harvey
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate models; Cost benefit analysis; Costs; Damage detection; Extreme weather; Hurricanes; Risk perception; Storms; Weather information services; Anthropogenic influence; Attributable risks; Best estimates; Economic costs; Extreme weather events; Human influences; Integrated assessment models; Tropical cyclone; Climate change; anthropogenic effect; climate change; cost analysis; hurricane event; integrated approach; macroeconomics; top-down approach; tropical cyclone; United States
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147189
作者单位	New Zealand Climate Change Research Institute, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, 6012, New Zealand; Computational Research Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States; Department of Economics, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, 6012, New Zealand; National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Wellington, 6021, New Zealand
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Frame D.J.,Wehner M.F.,Noy I.,et al. The economic costs of Hurricane Harvey attributable to climate change[J],2020,160(2).
APA	Frame D.J.,Wehner M.F.,Noy I.,&Rosier S.M..(2020).The economic costs of Hurricane Harvey attributable to climate change.Climatic Change,160(2).
MLA	Frame D.J.,et al."The economic costs of Hurricane Harvey attributable to climate change".Climatic Change 160.2(2020).