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DOI | 10.1007/s10584-019-02643-y |
Sensitivity of future climate change and uncertainty over India to performance-based model weighting | |
Singh R.; AchutaRao K. | |
发表日期 | 2020 |
ISSN | 0165-0009 |
起始页码 | 385 |
结束页码 | 406 |
卷号 | 160期号:3 |
英文摘要 | Multi-model ensembles are used to understand present and future climate change. Differences between individual model projections of future climates result in uncertainty in what we can expect in the future. Typically, models from such ensembles are treated equally but two reasons have been used to move away from this model democracy. The first reason is that models may not be equally skillful and therefore, their projections would need to be weighted differently based on model performance over the observed period. A second reason has to do with whether models are truly independent, that is they do not share components that can result in simulations that are closer, giving the impression of a lower uncertainty. This study examines the sensitivity of mean change and uncertainty in projected future surface air temperature and precipitation over India to weighting strategies based only on model performance but not their independence. It is found that some model performance metrics do not provide any value, as most models tend to have uniformly high or uniformly low weights. Considering multiple dimensions of model performance that add value in distinguishing between models is important for model weighting to be useful. Using multiple observational datasets for the two variables analysed, it is found that observational uncertainty can affect the weighted future change as much as the choice of weighting schemes over some regions. Careful selection of model performance metrics and reliable observations are necessary for a more robust estimate of future change and associated uncertainty. © 2020, Springer Nature B.V. |
英文关键词 | Climate change; India; Projections; Uncertainty |
语种 | 英语 |
scopus关键词 | Climate models; Uncertainty analysis; India; Multi-model ensemble; Multiple dimensions; Performance-based models; Projections; Surface air temperatures; Uncertainty; Weighting strategies; Climate change; air temperature; climate change; climate prediction; future prospect; performance assessment; precipitation (climatology); sensitivity analysis; uncertainty analysis; India |
来源期刊 | Climatic Change |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147168 |
作者单位 | Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, Hauz Khas, New Delhi, 110016, India |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Singh R.,AchutaRao K.. Sensitivity of future climate change and uncertainty over India to performance-based model weighting[J],2020,160(3). |
APA | Singh R.,&AchutaRao K..(2020).Sensitivity of future climate change and uncertainty over India to performance-based model weighting.Climatic Change,160(3). |
MLA | Singh R.,et al."Sensitivity of future climate change and uncertainty over India to performance-based model weighting".Climatic Change 160.3(2020). |
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