气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Projections of fire danger under climate change over France: where do the greatest uncertainties lie?

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DOI	10.1007/s10584-019-02629-w
	Projections of fire danger under climate change over France: where do the greatest uncertainties lie?
	Fargeon H.; Pimont F.; Martin-StPaul N.; De Caceres M.; Ruffault J.; Barbero R.; Dupuy J.-L.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0165-0009
起始页码	479
结束页码	493
卷号	160 期号:3
英文摘要	Global warming is expected to increase droughts and heatwaves, and consequently fire danger in southern Europe in the forthcoming decades. However, an assessment of the uncertainties associated with this general trend at regional scales, relevant to decision-making, is still missing. This study aims at assessing potential climate change impacts on fire danger over France through the projection of the widely used Fire Weather Index (FWI) and at quantifying the different sources of climate-driven uncertainty associated with these projections. We used daily climate experiments covering the 1995–2098 period under two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) provided by the EURO-CORDEX initiative. Our results show an overall increase in FWI throughout the century, with the largest absolute increases in the Mediterranean area. Model uncertainty was very high in western France, previously identified as a potential fire-prone region under future climate. In contrast, large increases in FWI in the Mediterranean area showed low uncertainty across models. Besides, analyzing the natural variability of FWI revealed that extreme years under present-day climate could become much more frequent by the end of the century. The FWI is projected to emerge from the background of natural variability by mid-twenty-first century with a summer elevated fire danger three times more likely when summer temperature anomaly exceeds + 2 °C. © 2020, Springer Nature B.V.
英文关键词	Climate change; Emergence; Fire Weather Index; Projection
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate change; Decision making; Fires; Global warming; Uncertainty analysis; Climate change impact; Emergence; Fire weather index; Mediterranean areas; Model uncertainties; Natural variability; Projection; Summer temperature; Climate models; climate change; decision making; fire history; global warming; Mediterranean environment; model validation; scenario analysis; temperature anomaly; uncertainty analysis; France
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147167
作者单位	INRAE, Ecologie des Forêts Méditerranéennes (UR 629), Avignon, France; Forest Sciences Center of Catalonia (CTFC), Solsona, Spain; Center for Ecological Research and Forestry Applications (CREAF), Cerdanyola del Vallès, Spain; INRAE, Mediterranean Ecosystems and Risks, Aix-en-Provence, France
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Fargeon H.,Pimont F.,Martin-StPaul N.,et al. Projections of fire danger under climate change over France: where do the greatest uncertainties lie?[J],2020,160(3).
APA	Fargeon H..,Pimont F..,Martin-StPaul N..,De Caceres M..,Ruffault J..,...&Dupuy J.-L..(2020).Projections of fire danger under climate change over France: where do the greatest uncertainties lie?.Climatic Change,160(3).
MLA	Fargeon H.,et al."Projections of fire danger under climate change over France: where do the greatest uncertainties lie?".Climatic Change 160.3(2020).