气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Vulnerability and risk: climate change and water supply from California’s Central Valley water system

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s10584-020-02655-z
	Vulnerability and risk: climate change and water supply from California’s Central Valley water system
	Ray P.; Wi S.; Schwarz A.; Correa M.; He M.; Brown C.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0165-0009
起始页码	177
结束页码	199
卷号	161 期号:1
英文摘要	Water allocation institutions globally must operate within legal and political contexts established by precedent and codified in operating rules, even as they flex and adjust to climate change. California’s Central Valley Water System (CVS) is a prime example. Recent global, national, regional, and local climate change assessments have highlighted climate-change-driven impacts on the CVS; however, these previous studies have not discussed the relative likelihood of performance decline, making it difficult to use the information for planning. In response, this paper presents a systematic climate change stress test that utilizes a physically based hydrologic model linked with a water resources system model representing the infrastructure, operations, and policy constraints of the interconnected system of natural river channels and man-made facilities that comprise the CVS. The results provide a summary of the sensitivity of the system to climate change, indicating the specific climate changes that cause performance of the system to decline below historical norms, and an estimation of the General Circulation Model (GCM) informed probability of those changes by 2050. Degraded performance is especially likely for State Water Project (SWP) deliveries (> 85%), and September carryover/drought storage in the Oroville Reservoir (the SWP’s largest reservoir, ~ 95% likely to degrade). A decline in Net Delta Outflow is likely in all seasons except summer and early fall (when regulations require supplemental releases to combat salinity from sea level rise). For most of these metrics, the modeled performance drop is more severe in dry years than in wet years. © 2020, Springer Nature B.V.
英文关键词	California Central Valley; Climate change; Decision scaling; Hydrologic model; Water year type
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate models; Landforms; Laws and legislation; Reservoirs (water); Sea level; Water management; Water supply; Waterworks; California; Decision scaling; General circulation model; Hydrologic modeling; Natural river channel; Physically-based hydrologic models; Water resources systems; Water year; Climate change; climate change; climate effect; estimation method; general circulation model; hydrological modeling; institutional framework; legal system; performance assessment; political system; probability; regulatory framework; river channel; water availability; water resource; water supply; Central Valley [California]
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147144
作者单位	Department of Chemical and Environmental Engineering, University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, OH, United States; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA, United States; Delta Stewardship Council, Sacramento, CA, United States; California Department of Water Resources, Sacramento, CA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ray P.,Wi S.,Schwarz A.,等. Vulnerability and risk: climate change and water supply from California’s Central Valley water system[J],2020,161(1).
APA	Ray P.,Wi S.,Schwarz A.,Correa M.,He M.,&Brown C..(2020).Vulnerability and risk: climate change and water supply from California’s Central Valley water system.Climatic Change,161(1).
MLA	Ray P.,et al."Vulnerability and risk: climate change and water supply from California’s Central Valley water system".Climatic Change 161.1(2020).