气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Investments under non-stationarity: economic evaluation of adaptation pathways

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DOI	10.1007/s10584-019-02409-6
	Investments under non-stationarity: economic evaluation of adaptation pathways
	Haasnoot M.; van Aalst M.; Rozenberg J.; Dominique K.; Matthews J.; Bouwer L.M.; Kind J.; Poff N.L.R.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0165-0009
起始页码	451
结束页码	463
卷号	161 期号:3
英文摘要	Investment decisions about capital-intensive, long-lived infrastructure are challenging due to uncertainty about their future performance, particularly if the performance is sensitive to climate change. Such investments, like those made for water infrastructure, are rarely evaluated over their total operational lifetime, during which socio-economic and environmental changes can cause potential lock-ins and reduced options for future choices that lead to high costs to transfer to other options. We propose an economic evaluation framework to explore adaptation pathways, or sequences of strategic investments options, that can be implemented if needed due to changing conditions. A novel feature is the inclusion of “transfer costs” associated with a switch to alternative pathways to allow adaptive decision-making and to minimize the cost of adjustment over time. Implementing a pathway-driven approach represents a break with most institutional decision-making processes and can significantly improve decision-making under uncertainty compared to the conventional single-investment perspective. We present a case study on flood risk management in the Netherlands to show the long-term socio-economic consequences of short-term decisions by going beyond the project cycle horizon. © 2019, The Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate change; Decision making; Economic analysis; Flood control; Floods; Risk management; Adaptive decision making; Decision making process; Decision making under uncertainty; Economic evaluations; Flood risk management; Operational lifetime; Socio-economic consequences; Strategic investments; Investments; adaptive management; cost analysis; decision making; flooding; infrastructure planning; risk assessment; socioeconomic status; uncertainty analysis; Netherlands
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147135
作者单位	Department of Water Resources and Delta Management, Deltares, PO Box 177, Delft, 2600 MH, Netherlands; Department of Geosciences, Utrecht University, Princetonlaan 8a, Utrecht, 3584 CB, Netherlands; Sustainable Development Practice Group, World Bank, 1818 H Street, MC 6-606, Washington, DC 20433, United States; Environment Directorate, OECD, 2 rue André-Pascal, Paris, 75775, France; Alliance for Global Water Adaptation (AGWA), 7640 NW Hoodview Circle, Corvallis, Orlando, OR 97330, United States; Climate services, Gerics, Fischertwiete 1, Hamburg, 20095, Germany; Department of Flood Risk Management, Deltares, Boussinesqweg 1, Delft, 2629 HV, Netherlands; Department of Biology and Graduate Degree Program in Ecology, Colorado State University, Campus Mail 1878, Fort Collins, CO 80523, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Haasnoot M.,van Aalst M.,Rozenberg J.,et al. Investments under non-stationarity: economic evaluation of adaptation pathways[J],2020,161(3).
APA	Haasnoot M..,van Aalst M..,Rozenberg J..,Dominique K..,Matthews J..,...&Poff N.L.R..(2020).Investments under non-stationarity: economic evaluation of adaptation pathways.Climatic Change,161(3).
MLA	Haasnoot M.,et al."Investments under non-stationarity: economic evaluation of adaptation pathways".Climatic Change 161.3(2020).