气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Greater probability of extreme precipitation under 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming limits over East-Central Asia

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s10584-020-02725-2
	Greater probability of extreme precipitation under 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming limits over East-Central Asia
	Zhang M.; Yu H.; King A.D.; Wei Y.; Huang J.; Ren Y.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0165-0009
起始页码	603
结束页码	619
卷号	162 期号:2
英文摘要	East-Central Asia is one of the most vulnerable and sensitive regions to climate change, and the variability of extreme precipitation attracts great attention due to the large population and the importance of its economy. Here, three special runs with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) are used to project the changes in representative extreme precipitation indices (Rx1day, Rx5day, R95p, SDII) over East-Central Asia under the 1.5 °C and 2 °C Paris Agreement limits. The results indicate that Rx1day and Rx5day will increase by 28% and 15%, respectively, under the 1.5 °C warming level relative to the historical period (1971–2000). Most areas over East-Central Asia are projected to experience an accelerated increase in response to a further 0.5 °C warming. Specifically, humid areas (HAs) are projected to experience a greater increase in R95p annual days and area fraction, whereas arid and semiarid areas (ASAs) may have threefold higher risks. The proportion of extreme precipitation in total will increase ~10% in most HAs in response to the 0.5 °C additional warming. Holding global warming at 1.5 °C instead of 2 °C reduces the occurrence of R95p annual days by ~3 days/year in humid areas and ~1 day/year in ASAs. For SDII, most HAs will experience 0.2–0.6 mm/day and 0.2–0.4 mm/day increases in 1.5 °C or 2 °C warming limits, especially in Southeast China and the Himalayas. Therefore, limiting global warming to under 1.5 °C is beneficial to reducing the occurrence and associated impact of precipitation extremes in East-Central Asia. © 2020, Springer Nature B.V.
英文关键词	1.5 °C and 2 °C warming limits; Arid and semiarid areas; East-Central Asia; Extreme precipitation; Humid areas
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Global warming; Area fraction; Arid and semi-arid areas; Earth system model; Extreme precipitation; Historical periods; Large population; Precipitation extremes; Sensitive regions; Precipitation (meteorology)
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147107
作者单位	Key Laboratory of Land Surface Process and Climate Change in Cold and Arid Regions, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, China; Key Laboratory for Semi-Arid Climate Change of the Ministry of Education, College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China; Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Disaster Reduction in Gansu Province, Key Open Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Disaster Reduction in CMA, Institute of Arid Meteorology, CMA, Lanzhou, China; ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, 3010, Australia; Collaborative Innovation Center for Western Ecological Safety, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang M.,Yu H.,King A.D.,et al. Greater probability of extreme precipitation under 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming limits over East-Central Asia[J],2020,162(2).
APA	Zhang M.,Yu H.,King A.D.,Wei Y.,Huang J.,&Ren Y..(2020).Greater probability of extreme precipitation under 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming limits over East-Central Asia.Climatic Change,162(2).
MLA	Zhang M.,et al."Greater probability of extreme precipitation under 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming limits over East-Central Asia".Climatic Change 162.2(2020).