气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Assessment of uncertainties in projecting future changes to extreme storm surge height depending on future SST and greenhouse gas concentration scenarios

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DOI	10.1007/s10584-020-02782-7
	Assessment of uncertainties in projecting future changes to extreme storm surge height depending on future SST and greenhouse gas concentration scenarios
	Yang J.-A.; Kim S.; Son S.; Mori N.; Mase H.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0165-0009
起始页码	425
结束页码	442
卷号	162 期号:2
英文摘要	We assess uncertainties in projecting future changes in extreme storm surge height (SSH) based on typhoon data extracted from ensemble experiment results with four sea surface temperature (SST) conditions and three global warming scenarios using a single atmospheric global climate model. In particular, this study focus on typhoons passing around the Korean Peninsula (KP) defined as the region of 32 to 40° N and 122 to 132° E. It is predicted the number of the typhoons affecting the KP will decrease by 4~73% while their strength will increase by 0.8~1.4% under the given future conditions. The locations of genesis and lysis of the typhoons are expected to be shifted towards the northwest and northeast for all ensemble experiment conditions, respectively. However, the extent of their change varies depending on the future SST and global warming conditions. Storm surge simulations were carried out by using predicted typhoon data as an external force. It is found that future SST patterns and climate warming scenarios affect future typhoon characteristics, which influences values of extreme SSH and locations of the vulnerable area to storm surge under the future climate conditions. In particular, the values of extreme SSH and the locations of the vulnerable area to storm surge appear to be strongly influenced by both pathway and frequency of intense typhoons. © 2020, The Author(s).
英文关键词	Climate change; Ensemble experiment; Extreme storm surge height; Greenhouse gas concentration scenario; Sea surface temperature
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate models; Floods; Global warming; Greenhouse gases; Hurricanes; Location; Oceanography; Surface waters; Uncertainty analysis; Climate warming; Experiment condition; Future climate; Gas concentration; Global climate model; Sea surface temperature (SST); Typhoon characteristics; Vulnerable area; Storms
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147087
作者单位	Research Institute for Mega Construction, Korea University, 145 Anamro, Sungbuk-gu, Seoul, 02841, South Korea; Graduate School of Engineering, Tottori University, 4-101 Koyama-Minami, Tottori, 680-8552, Japan; School of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering, Korea University, 145 Anamro, Sungbuk-gu, Seoul, 02841, South Korea; Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Gokasho, Uji, Kyoto, 611-0011, Japan
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Yang J.-A.,Kim S.,Son S.,et al. Assessment of uncertainties in projecting future changes to extreme storm surge height depending on future SST and greenhouse gas concentration scenarios[J],2020,162(2).
APA	Yang J.-A.,Kim S.,Son S.,Mori N.,&Mase H..(2020).Assessment of uncertainties in projecting future changes to extreme storm surge height depending on future SST and greenhouse gas concentration scenarios.Climatic Change,162(2).
MLA	Yang J.-A.,et al."Assessment of uncertainties in projecting future changes to extreme storm surge height depending on future SST and greenhouse gas concentration scenarios".Climatic Change 162.2(2020).