气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Economic valuation of climate change–induced mortality: age dependent cold and heat mortality in the Netherlands

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DOI	10.1007/s10584-020-02797-0
	Economic valuation of climate change–induced mortality: age dependent cold and heat mortality in the Netherlands
	Botzen W.J.W.; Martinius M.L.; Bröde P.; Folkerts M.A.; Ignjacevic P.; Estrada F.; Harmsen C.N.; Daanen H.A.M.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0165-0009
起始页码	545
结束页码	562
卷号	162 期号:2
英文摘要	This study examines the impacts of climate change on future mortality in the Netherlands and the related economic costs. Our methods account for changes in both cold- and heat-related mortality for different age classes, the time dynamics associated with temperature-related mortality, demographic change and the urban heat island effect. Results show that heat and cold impacts on mortality vary considerably between age classes, with older people being more vulnerable to temperature extremes. The sensitivity of mortality to temperature is higher on hot (4.6%/°C) than cold (2.1%/°C) days for the most vulnerable group (≥ 80 years), and extreme temperatures have long time lags on mortality, especially in the cold. A main finding is that climate change is expected to first decrease total net mortality in the Netherlands due to a dominant effect of less cold-related mortality, but this reverses over time under high warming scenarios, unless additional adaptation measures are taken. The economic valuation of these total net mortality changes indicates that climate change will result in net benefits of up to €2.3 billion using the Value of a Statistical Life Year and €14.5 billion using the Value of a Statistical Life approaches in 2050, while this changes over time in net economic costs under high warming scenarios that can reach up to €17.6 billion in 2085. Implementing adaptation policies that reduce the negative impacts of warming on mortality in the heat can turn these net costs into net benefits by achieving a continued dominating effect of reduced mortality in the cold. © 2020, The Author(s).
英文关键词	Climate change; Climate-induced mortality; Cold stress; Economic valuation; Health; Heat stress
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Atmospheric temperature; Costs; Adaptation policies; Demographic changes; Economic valuation; Extreme temperatures; Heat related mortality; Temperature extremes; Urban Heat Island Effects; Value of a statistical lives; Climate change; adaptive management; climate change; cost analysis; economic analysis; future prospect; heat island; high temperature; mortality; vulnerability; Netherlands
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147079
作者单位	Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1087, Amsterdam, 1081 HV, Netherlands; Utrecht University School of Economics (U.S.E.), Utrecht University, Utrecht, 3508 TC, Netherlands; Institute for Interdisciplinary Studies (IIS), University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands; Leibniz Research Centre for Working Environment and Human Factors (IfADo), Dortmund, Germany; Department of Human Movement Sciences, Faculty of Behavioural and Movement Sciences, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam Movement Sciences, Van der Boechorststraat 7, Amsterdam, 1081 BT, Netherlands; Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico City, 04510, Mexico; Statistics Netherlands, The Hague, Netherlands
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Botzen W.J.W.,Martinius M.L.,Bröde P.,等. Economic valuation of climate change–induced mortality: age dependent cold and heat mortality in the Netherlands[J],2020,162(2).
APA	Botzen W.J.W..,Martinius M.L..,Bröde P..,Folkerts M.A..,Ignjacevic P..,...&Daanen H.A.M..(2020).Economic valuation of climate change–induced mortality: age dependent cold and heat mortality in the Netherlands.Climatic Change,162(2).
MLA	Botzen W.J.W.,et al."Economic valuation of climate change–induced mortality: age dependent cold and heat mortality in the Netherlands".Climatic Change 162.2(2020).