气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): A statistical analysis of time trends in atmospheric ethane

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DOI	10.1007/s10584-020-02806-2
	A statistical analysis of time trends in atmospheric ethane
	Friedrich M.; Beutner E.; Reuvers H.; Smeekes S.; Urbain J.-P.; Bader W.; Franco B.; Lejeune B.; Mahieu E.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0165-0009
起始页码	105
结束页码	125
卷号	162 期号:1
英文摘要	Ethane is the most abundant non-methane hydrocarbon in the Earth’s atmosphere and an important precursor of tropospheric ozone through various chemical pathways. Ethane is also an indirect greenhouse gas (global warming potential), influencing the atmospheric lifetime of methane through the consumption of the hydroxyl radical (OH). Understanding the development of trends and identifying trend reversals in atmospheric ethane is therefore crucial. Our dataset consists of four series of daily ethane columns. As with many other decadal time series, our data are characterized by autocorrelation, heteroskedasticity, and seasonal effects. Additionally, missing observations due to instrument failure or unfavorable measurement conditions are common in such series. The goal of this paper is therefore to analyze trends in atmospheric ethane with statistical tools that correctly address these data features. We present selected methods designed for the analysis of time trends and trend reversals. We consider bootstrap inference on broken linear trends and smoothly varying nonlinear trends. In particular, for the broken trend model, we propose a bootstrap method for inference on the break location and the corresponding changes in slope. For the smooth trend model, we construct simultaneous confidence bands around the nonparametrically estimated trend. Our autoregressive wild bootstrap approach, combined with a seasonal filter, is able to handle all issues mentioned above (we provide R code for all proposed methods on https://www.stephansmeekes.nl/code.). © 2020, The Author(s).
英文关键词	Atmospheric ethane; Bootstrapping; Break point estimation; Trend analysis
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Atmospheric chemistry; Earth atmosphere; Global warming; Greenhouse gases; Methane; Statistical mechanics; Atmospheric lifetime; Chemical pathways; Global warming potential; Heteroskedasticity; Measurement conditions; Missing observations; Non-methane hydrocarbons; Tropospheric ozone; Ethane; ethane; global warming; hydroxyl radical; methane; numerical model; ozone; statistical analysis; troposphere
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147073
作者单位	Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research – Member of the Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 601203, 14412 Potsdam, Germany; Department of Econometrics and Data Science, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1105, 1081HV Amsterdam, Netherlands; Department of Quantitative Economics, Maastricht University, P.O.Box 616, 6200MD Maastricht, Netherlands; Department of Econometrics, Erasmus University, P.O. Box 1738, 3062PA Rotterdam, Netherlands; Agence Wallone de l’Air et du Climat, Avenue Prince de Liège, Jambes, 7, 5100, Belgium; Spectroscopy, Quantum Chemistry and Atmospheric Remote Sensing (SQUARES), Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB), 50 avenue F.D. Roosevelt, Brussels, 1050, Belgium; Institute of Astrophysics and Geophysics, University of Liège, Quartier Agora, 19 allée du 6 Août, Liège, 4000, Belgium
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Friedrich M.,Beutner E.,Reuvers H.,et al. A statistical analysis of time trends in atmospheric ethane[J],2020,162(1).
APA	Friedrich M..,Beutner E..,Reuvers H..,Smeekes S..,Urbain J.-P..,...&Mahieu E..(2020).A statistical analysis of time trends in atmospheric ethane.Climatic Change,162(1).
MLA	Friedrich M.,et al."A statistical analysis of time trends in atmospheric ethane".Climatic Change 162.1(2020).