气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Projected impacts of climate change on tourism in the Coachella Valley; California

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s10584-020-02843-x
	Projected impacts of climate change on tourism in the Coachella Valley; California
	Yañez C.C.; Hopkins F.M.; Porter W.C.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0165-0009
起始页码	707
结束页码	721
卷号	162 期号:2
英文摘要	Weather and climate are important considerations for tourists in selecting their destinations, and climate change may impact these decisions, with implications for economic revenue in tourism-dependent locations. In the Coachella Valley, a desert region in Southern California, the warm and dry climate during winter months attracts seasonal visitors from Canada and northern US states (“snowbirds”). However, global warming may adversely impact the snowbird season and other tourist attractions through rising temperatures. We analyzed how increasing temperatures are likely to impact three key components of the tourism industry in the region: climate in the winter snowbird season, visitation at an outdoor tourist attraction, and the likelihood of extreme heat at an annual festival. We used statistically downscaled climate models to make predictions about future visitation to the region by calculating changing probabilities of extreme heat during the tourist season and local events. Our analysis predicts a shortened snowbird season, which we define as the time of year with daily maximum temperatures below a threshold of 30 °C, under two future climate scenarios and time periods. We find a nonlinear relationship between daily maximum temperatures and daily zoo visits, where visitation sharply declines after a threshold of 30 °C. Using this threshold, we predict a decrease in zoo visitation by up to 18% and a shortening of the snowbird season by up to 36% by the end of the century. We also predict an increased likelihood of extreme heat stress during the Coachella Valley Music and Arts Festival. © 2020, Springer Nature B.V.
英文关键词	Extreme heat; Festival; Projections; Snowbird; Tourism; Zoo
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Forecasting; Global warming; Landforms; Leisure industry; Tourism; Economic revenue; Future climate scenarios; Increasing temperatures; Maximum temperature; Non-linear relationships; Rising temperatures; Southern California; Tourist attractions; Climate models; climate change; climate effect; climate prediction; high temperature; perception; tourism market; tourist attraction; tourist behavior; tourist destination; California; Coachella Valley; United States
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147069
作者单位	Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of California Riverside, Riverside, CA, United States; Department of Earth System Science, University of California Irvine, Irvine, CA, United States; Department of Environmental Sciences, University of California Riverside, Riverside, CA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Yañez C.C.,Hopkins F.M.,Porter W.C.. Projected impacts of climate change on tourism in the Coachella Valley; California[J],2020,162(2).
APA	Yañez C.C.,Hopkins F.M.,&Porter W.C..(2020).Projected impacts of climate change on tourism in the Coachella Valley; California.Climatic Change,162(2).
MLA	Yañez C.C.,et al."Projected impacts of climate change on tourism in the Coachella Valley; California".Climatic Change 162.2(2020).