气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Regional climate change projections from NA-CORDEX and their relation to climate sensitivity

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DOI	10.1007/s10584-020-02835-x
	Regional climate change projections from NA-CORDEX and their relation to climate sensitivity
	Bukovsky M.S.; Mearns L.O.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0165-0009
起始页码	645
结束页码	665
卷号	162 期号:2
英文摘要	The climate sensitivity of global climate models (GCMs) strongly influences projected climate change due to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide. Reasonably, the climate sensitivity of a GCM may be expected to affect dynamically downscaled projections. However, there has been little examination of the effect of the climate sensitivity of GCMs on regional climate model (RCM) ensembles. Therefore, we present projections of temperature and precipitation from the ensemble of projections produced as a part of the North American branch of the international Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX) in the context of their relationship to the climate sensitivity of their parent GCMs. NA-CORDEX simulations were produced at 50-km and 25-km resolutions with multiple RCMs which downscaled multiple GCMs that spanned nearly the full range of climate sensitivity available in the CMIP5 archive. We show that climate sensitivity is a very important source of spread in the NA-CORDEX ensemble, particularly for temperature. Temperature projections correlate with driving GCM climate sensitivity annually and seasonally across North America not only at a continental scale but also at a local-to-regional scale. Importantly, the spread in temperature projections would be reduced if only low, mid, or high climate sensitivity simulations were considered, or if only the ensemble mean were considered. Precipitation projections correlate with climate sensitivity, but only at a continental scale during the cold season, due to the increasing influence of other processes at finer scales. Additionally, it is shown that the RCMs do alter the projection space sampled by their driving GCMs. © 2020, The Author(s).
英文关键词	Climate sensitivity; CORDEX; North America; Projections; Regional climate modeling; Uncertainty
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Atmospheric chemistry; Carbon dioxide; Carbon dioxide process; Climate models; Electric power system interconnection; Atmospheric carbon dioxide; Climate sensitivity; Continental scale; Global climate model; Regional climate changes; Regional climate modeling (RCM); Regional downscaling; Temperature projection; Climate change; carbon dioxide; CMIP; downscaling; general circulation model; global climate; regional climate; sensitivity analysis; temperature profile; North America
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147067
作者单位	National Center for Atmospheric Research, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Bukovsky M.S.,Mearns L.O.. Regional climate change projections from NA-CORDEX and their relation to climate sensitivity[J],2020,162(2).
APA	Bukovsky M.S.,&Mearns L.O..(2020).Regional climate change projections from NA-CORDEX and their relation to climate sensitivity.Climatic Change,162(2).
MLA	Bukovsky M.S.,et al."Regional climate change projections from NA-CORDEX and their relation to climate sensitivity".Climatic Change 162.2(2020).