气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Risk of extreme high fatalities due to weather and climate hazards and its connection to large-scale climate variability

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s10584-020-02825-z
	Risk of extreme high fatalities due to weather and climate hazards and its connection to large-scale climate variability
	Franzke C.L.E.; Torelló i Sentelles H.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0165-0009
起始页码	507
结束页码	525
卷号	162 期号:2
英文摘要	Weather and climate hazards cause too many fatalities each year. These weather and climate hazards are projected to increase in frequency and intensity due to global warming. Here, we use a disaster database to investigate continentally aggregated fatality data for trends. We also examine whether modes of climate variability affect the propensity of fatalities. Furthermore, we quantify fatality risk by computing effective return periods which depend on modes of climate variability. We find statistically significant increasing trends for heat waves and floods for worldwide aggregated data. Significant trends occur in the number of fatalities in Asia where fatalities due to heat waves and floods are increasing, while storm-related fatalities are decreasing. However, when normalized by population size, the trends are no longer significant. Furthermore, the number of fatalities can be well described probabilistically by an extreme value distribution, a generalized Pareto distribution (GPD). Based on the GPD, we evaluate covariates which affect the number of fatalities aggregated over all hazard types. For this purpose, we evaluate combinations of modes of climate variability and socio-economic indicators as covariates. We find no evidence for a significant direct impact from socio-economic indicators; however, we find significant evidence for the impact from modes of climate variability on the number of fatalities. The important modes of climate variability affecting the number of fatalities are tropical cyclone activity, modes of sea surface temperature and atmospheric teleconnection patterns. This offers the potential of predictability of the number of fatalities given that most of these climate modes are predictable on seasonal to inter-annual time scales. © 2020, The Author(s).
英文关键词	Disaster; Extreme events; Global warming; Weather
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Economics; Floods; Global warming; Oceanography; Pareto principle; Population statistics; Storms; Surface waters; Atmospheric teleconnection patterns; Climate variability; Extreme value distributions; Generalized Pareto distribution; Population sizes; Sea surface temperature (SST); Socio-economic indicators; Tropical cyclone activity; Hazards; climate prediction; climate variation; connectivity; hazard assessment; risk assessment; sea surface temperature; socioeconomic conditions; trend analysis; tropical cyclone
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147066
作者单位	Meteorological Institute, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany; Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany; School of Integrated Climate System Sciences, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Franzke C.L.E.,Torelló i Sentelles H.. Risk of extreme high fatalities due to weather and climate hazards and its connection to large-scale climate variability[J],2020,162(2).
APA	Franzke C.L.E.,&Torelló i Sentelles H..(2020).Risk of extreme high fatalities due to weather and climate hazards and its connection to large-scale climate variability.Climatic Change,162(2).
MLA	Franzke C.L.E.,et al."Risk of extreme high fatalities due to weather and climate hazards and its connection to large-scale climate variability".Climatic Change 162.2(2020).