气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Mid-century emission pathways in Japan associated with the global 2 °C goal: national and global models’ assessments based on carbon budgets

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s10584-019-02490-x
	Mid-century emission pathways in Japan associated with the global 2 °C goal: national and global models’ assessments based on carbon budgets
	Oshiro K.; Gi K.; Fujimori S.; van Soest H.L.; Bertram C.; Després J.; Masui T.; Rochedo P.; Roelfsema M.; Vrontisi Z.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0165-0009
起始页码	1913
结束页码	1927
卷号	162 期号:4
英文摘要	This study assesses Japan’s mid-century low-emission pathways using both national and global integrated assessment models in the common mitigation scenario framework, based on the carbon budgets corresponding to the global 2 °C goal. We examine high and low budgets, equal to global cumulative 1600 and 1000 Gt-CO2 (2011–2100) for global models, and 36 and 31 Gt-CO2 (2011–2050) in Japan for national models, based on the cost-effectiveness allocation performed by the global models. The impacts of near-term policy assumption, including the implementation and enhancement of the 2030 target of the nationally determined contribution (NDC), are also considered. Our estimates show that the low budget scenarios require a 75% reduction of CO2 emissions by 2050 below the 2010 level, which is nearly the same as Japan’s governmental 2050 goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 80%. With regard to near-term actions, Japan’s 2030 target included in the NDC is on track to meet the high budget scenario, whereas it is falling short for the low budget scenario, which would require emission reductions immediately after 2020. Whereas models differ in the type of energy source on which they foresee Japan basing its decarbonization process (e.g., nuclear- or variable renewable energy-dependent), the large-scale deployment of low-carbon energy (nuclear, renewable, and carbon capture and storage) is shared across most models in both the high and low budget scenarios. By 2050, low-carbon energy represents 44–54% of primary energy and 86–97% of electricity supply in the high and low budget scenarios, respectively. © 2019, The Author(s).
英文关键词	Carbon budget; Integrated assessment model; Mitigation; Nationally determined contribution; Paris agreement
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Carbon capture; Carbon dioxide; Cost effectiveness; Emission control; Energy policy; Gas emissions; Greenhouse gases; Carbon budgets; Global integrated assessments; Integrated assessment models; Large-scale deployment; Low carbon energies; Mitigation; Nationally determined contribution; Variable renewable energies; Budget control; assessment method; carbon dioxide; carbon emission; carbon sequestration; electricity supply; emission control; greenhouse gas; integrated approach; mitigation; Japan
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147061
作者单位	Kyoto University, C1-3, Kyotodaigaku-Katsura, Nishikyo-ku, Kyoto, Japan; Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth, 9-2 Kizugawadai, Kizugawa, Kyoto, Japan; National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, Laxenburg, 2361, Austria; PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, P.O. Box 30314, The Hague, 2500 GH, Netherlands; Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, P.O. Box 80.115, Utrecht, 3508 TC, Netherlands; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, P.O. Box 601203, Potsdam, 14412, Germany; European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Calle Inca Garcilaso 3, Seville, 41092, Spain; COPPE, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Centro de Tecnologia, Bloco C, Sala 211, Ilha do Fundão, Rio de Janeiro, RJ 21941-972, Brazil; E3M-Lab, Institute of Communication and Computer Systems, National Technical University of Athens, 9, Iroon Politec...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Oshiro K.,Gi K.,Fujimori S.,等. Mid-century emission pathways in Japan associated with the global 2 °C goal: national and global models’ assessments based on carbon budgets[J],2020,162(4).
APA	Oshiro K..,Gi K..,Fujimori S..,van Soest H.L..,Bertram C..,...&Vrontisi Z..(2020).Mid-century emission pathways in Japan associated with the global 2 °C goal: national and global models’ assessments based on carbon budgets.Climatic Change,162(4).
MLA	Oshiro K.,et al."Mid-century emission pathways in Japan associated with the global 2 °C goal: national and global models’ assessments based on carbon budgets".Climatic Change 162.4(2020).