气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Moving towards socio-technical scenarios of the German energy transition—lessons learned from integrated energy scenario building

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s10584-019-02598-0
	Moving towards socio-technical scenarios of the German energy transition—lessons learned from integrated energy scenario building
	Pregger T.; Naegler T.; Weimer-Jehle W.; Prehofer S.; Hauser W.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0165-0009
起始页码	1743
结束页码	1762
卷号	162 期号:4
英文摘要	Energy scenarios describing transition pathways towards low-emission energy systems are commonly used to design mitigation strategies. There is a growing awareness in the research community that energy transitions should be understood as socio-technical transitions and that energy scenario construction should reflect this fact. This paper presents an application of a socio-technical scenario building method for improving long-term scenarios and strategies for the energy transition in Germany. Developing integrated scenarios on a national level starts with employing the cross impact balancing (CIB) approach for identifying consistent societal scenarios. As a first step, relevant context factors are selected and defined (39 descriptors and alternative future developments). Interviews with experts are used to develop a qualitative impact network for the CIB. The resulting context scenarios are then transferred to quantitative energy scenarios by using two different energy models that account for energy demand and supply structures for Germany. A final evaluation focuses on primary energy demand, renewable energy shares, and direct energy-related CO2 emissions. The approach integrates statements of societal and energy model experts and results in an interdisciplinary knowledge integration. This in turn provides insight into the method’s capacity to improve the consistency of energy scenarios and to identify potential societal risks related to the energy transition process. © 2019, Springer Nature B.V.
英文关键词	CIB; Cross impact balancing; Energy system modeling; Energy transition; Socio-technical scenario
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Energy management; Energy system model; Energy transitions; Knowledge integration; Mitigation strategy; Primary energy demand; Research communities; Socio-technical scenarios; Socio-technical transitions; Risk perception; alternative energy; carbon dioxide; carbon emission; demand analysis; integrated approach; questionnaire survey; scenario analysis; socioeconomic status; Germany
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147060
作者单位	Department of Energy Systems Analysis, Institute of Engineering Thermodynamics, German Aerospace Center (DLR), Stuttgart, Germany; Center for Interdisciplinary Risk and Innovation Studies (ZIRIUS), University of Stuttgart, Stuttgart, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Pregger T.,Naegler T.,Weimer-Jehle W.,等. Moving towards socio-technical scenarios of the German energy transition—lessons learned from integrated energy scenario building[J],2020,162(4).
APA	Pregger T.,Naegler T.,Weimer-Jehle W.,Prehofer S.,&Hauser W..(2020).Moving towards socio-technical scenarios of the German energy transition—lessons learned from integrated energy scenario building.Climatic Change,162(4).
MLA	Pregger T.,et al."Moving towards socio-technical scenarios of the German energy transition—lessons learned from integrated energy scenario building".Climatic Change 162.4(2020).