气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Socio-technical energy scenarios: state-of-the-art and CIB-based approaches

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s10584-020-02680-y
	Socio-technical energy scenarios: state-of-the-art and CIB-based approaches
	Weimer-Jehle W.; Vögele S.; Hauser W.; Kosow H.; Poganietz W.-R.; Prehofer S.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0165-0009
起始页码	1723
结束页码	1741
卷号	162 期号:4
英文摘要	Energy conversion is a major source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and energy transition scenarios are a key tool for gaining a greater understanding of the possible pathways toward climate protection. There is consensus in energy research that political and societal framework conditions will play a pivotal role in shaping energy transitions. In energy scenario construction, this perspective is increasingly acknowledged through the approach of informing model-based energy analysis with storylines about societal futures, an exercise we call “socio-technical energy scenario construction” in this article. However, there is a dispute about how to construct the storylines in a traceable, consistent, comprehensive, and reproducible way. This study aims to support energy researchers considering the use of the concept of socio-technical scenarios in two ways: first, we provide a state-of-the-art analysis of socio-technical energy scenario construction by comparing 16 studies with respect to five categories. Second, we address the dispute regarding storyline construction in energy research and examine 13 reports using the Cross-Impact Balances method. We collated researcher statements on the strengths and challenges of this method and identified seven categories of promises and challenges each. © 2020, The Author(s).
英文关键词	Cross-Impact Balances (CIB); Energy scenario; Energy transition; Socio-technical scenario
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Energy conversion; Gas emissions; Climate protection; Cross-Impact Balances (CIB); Energy research; Energy scenarios; Energy transitions; Framework conditions; Socio-technical scenarios; State of the art; Greenhouse gases; climate change; greenhouse gas; numerical model; technical efficiency
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147054
作者单位	ZIRIUS, University of Stuttgart, Seidenstr. 36, Stuttgart, 70174, Germany; IEK-STE, Research Center Jülich (FZJ), Wilhelm-Johnen-Straße, Jülich, 52428, Germany; ITAS, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlstrasse 11, Karlsruhe, 76133, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Weimer-Jehle W.,Vögele S.,Hauser W.,et al. Socio-technical energy scenarios: state-of-the-art and CIB-based approaches[J],2020,162(4).
APA	Weimer-Jehle W.,Vögele S.,Hauser W.,Kosow H.,Poganietz W.-R.,&Prehofer S..(2020).Socio-technical energy scenarios: state-of-the-art and CIB-based approaches.Climatic Change,162(4).
MLA	Weimer-Jehle W.,et al."Socio-technical energy scenarios: state-of-the-art and CIB-based approaches".Climatic Change 162.4(2020).