气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Severe winter chill decline impacts Tunisian fruit and nut orchards

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DOI	10.1007/s10584-020-02774-7
	Severe winter chill decline impacts Tunisian fruit and nut orchards
	Benmoussa H.; Luedeling E.; Ghrab M.; Ben Mimoun M.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0165-0009
起始页码	1249
结束页码	1267
卷号	162 期号:3
英文摘要	Future warming predicted for Tunisia may reduce winter chill and affect the production of tree fruits and nuts, one of the key sectors of the country’s economy. To assess past and future chill availability, we used weather records from 1973 to 2019 to simulate historic and future chill for 20 weather stations (16 from Tunisia, 3 from Algeria and 1 from Libya) by generating 6 past scenarios and 72 future scenarios for 2041–2070 and for 2071–2100, for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We selected three future scenarios representing optimistic, intermediate, and pessimistic outlooks. Safe Winter Chill (SWC; in Chill Portions) was calculated using the Dynamic Model based on data for 100 winter seasons produced with a weather generator. SWC was then mapped for the whole country. Chilling requirements for typical Mediterranean fruit species (almond, pistachio, and peach cultivars) were compared with future SWC to select the best adapted fruit species, and cultivars within species, for each region. Our findings revealed severe SWC decline in the recent past. This decline will continue in the course of the twenty-first century. At the end of the century, we expect few of the studied species and cultivars to be able to fulfill their chilling requirements. By that time, only almonds may remain viable, whereas pistachios and peaches may experience alarming chill shortfalls. While our findings paint a grim picture for Tunisia’s orchards, they also allow insights for many other important fruit-growing regions with Mediterranean climate. © 2020, Springer Nature B.V.
英文关键词	Almond; Chill accumulation; Climate change; Peach; Pistachio; Winter chill
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Cultivation; Electric substations; Orchards; Weather information services; Chilling requirement; Fruit species; Growing regions; Mediterranean climates; Weather generator; Weather stations; Winter chill; Winter seasons; Fruits; climate effect; cold tolerance; cultivar; fruit; Mediterranean environment; nut; orchard; weather station; winter; Algeria; Libyan Arab Jamahiriya; Tunisia; Pistacia vera; Prunus dulcis; Prunus persica
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147036
作者单位	Université de Carthage, Institut National Agronomique de Tunisie (INAT), Laboratoire LR17AGR01 Gestion intégrée des Ressources Naturelles: Télédétection, Analyse spatiale et Modélisation, 43 Avenue Charles Nicolle, Tunis, 1082, Tunisia; INRES – Horticultural Sciences, University of Bonn, Auf dem Hügel 6, Bonn, 53121, Germany; Université de Sfax, Institut de l’Olivier (IO), Laboratoire LR16IO02, BP 1087, Sfax, 3000, Tunisia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Benmoussa H.,Luedeling E.,Ghrab M.,et al. Severe winter chill decline impacts Tunisian fruit and nut orchards[J],2020,162(3).
APA	Benmoussa H.,Luedeling E.,Ghrab M.,&Ben Mimoun M..(2020).Severe winter chill decline impacts Tunisian fruit and nut orchards.Climatic Change,162(3).
MLA	Benmoussa H.,et al."Severe winter chill decline impacts Tunisian fruit and nut orchards".Climatic Change 162.3(2020).