气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Development of an interdisciplinary; multi-method approach to seasonal climate forecast communication at the local scale

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s10584-020-02845-9
	Development of an interdisciplinary; multi-method approach to seasonal climate forecast communication at the local scale
	Alexander S.; Atsbeha E.; Negatu S.; Kirksey K.; Brossard D.; Holzer E.; Block P.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0165-0009
起始页码	2021
结束页码	2042
卷号	162 期号:4
英文摘要	Bridging the gap between seasonal climate forecast development and science communication best practice is a critical step towards the integration of climate information into decision-making practices for enhanced community resilience to climate variability. Recent efforts in the physical sciences have focused on the development of seasonal climate forecasts, with increased emphasis on tailoring this information to user needs at the local scale. Advances in science communication have progressed understandings of how to leverage subjective decision-making processes and trust to communicate risky, probabilistic information. Yet, seasonal climate forecasts remain underutilized in local decision-making, due to challenging divides between the physical and social sciences and the lack of an approach that combines expert knowledge across disciplines. We outline an interdisciplinary, multi-method approach to communicate local-scale predictive information by advancing a co-produced “package” that pairs a highly visual bulletin with public engagement sessions, both developed with direct user-developer engagement, leveraging existing networks and novel inclusion of uncertainty through locally relevant analogies to enhance the understanding of probabilistic information. Systematic observations revealed some level of understanding among the target audience, yet identified major processes of confusion that inhibit forecast utility. Probabilistic predictions communicated in reference to “normal” years proved to be an unintelligible comparison for individuals, given preferences for certainty in interpreting risk-related information. Our approach addresses key gaps in the literature and serves as a framework for bridging the disconnect between forecast development and science communication to advance communication and integration of climate predictions for community benefit. © 2020, Springer Nature B.V.
英文关键词	Ethiopia; Interdisciplinary; Public engagement; Science communication; Seasonal climate forecast
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climatology; Decision making; Community resiliences; Decision making process; Decision-making practices; Predictive information; Probabilistic information; Probabilistic prediction; Science communications; Seasonal climate forecast; Forecasting; climate change; decision making; forecasting method; interdisciplinary approach; literature review; probability; risk; risk assessment; weather forecasting
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147004
作者单位	Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706, United States; Department of Sociology, University of Connecticut, Mansfield, CT 06269, United States; Department of Life Sciences Communication, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Alexander S.,Atsbeha E.,Negatu S.,et al. Development of an interdisciplinary; multi-method approach to seasonal climate forecast communication at the local scale[J],2020,162(4).
APA	Alexander S..,Atsbeha E..,Negatu S..,Kirksey K..,Brossard D..,...&Block P..(2020).Development of an interdisciplinary; multi-method approach to seasonal climate forecast communication at the local scale.Climatic Change,162(4).
MLA	Alexander S.,et al."Development of an interdisciplinary; multi-method approach to seasonal climate forecast communication at the local scale".Climatic Change 162.4(2020).