气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Inter-model agreement on projected shifts in California hydroclimate characteristics critical to water management

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s10584-020-02882-4
	Inter-model agreement on projected shifts in California hydroclimate characteristics critical to water management
	Persad G.G.; Swain D.L.; Kouba C.; Ortiz-Partida J.P.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0165-0009
起始页码	1493
结束页码	1513
卷号	162 期号:3
英文摘要	Shifts away from the historical hydroclimate in populated regions can have dire consequences for water management. Regions like the state of California—where highly engineered, geographically interconnected, and inflexible water management systems are predicated on particular spatiotemporal patterns of water availability—are particularly vulnerable to hydroclimate shifts. However, much of the analysis of hydroclimate sensitivity to anthropogenic climate change has focused on gross metrics like annual mean precipitation, which is highly uncertain at the regional scale. This perceived uncertainty has deterred adaptation investments and quantitative integration of climate projection data into regional water management. Here, we assess projected future shifts in the state of California in a range of hydroclimate metrics critical to water management, using data from 10 statistically downscaled global climate model and two emissions scenarios currently used by the state. We find substantial inter-model agreement under both emissions scenarios—and > 80% inter-model agreement under the more severe climate change scenario—across metrics that collectively point toward an increasingly volatile, temporally concentrated, and extreme precipitation future for the state. We show, via hydrologic and operations modeling, that accounting for shifts in these more nuanced metrics reduces the projected reliability and sustainability of current water management practices to a greater degree than would be inferred from changes in total annual precipitation alone. These results highlight both the viability and critical importance of incorporating climate change projections quantitatively into water management decisions in California and other regions vulnerable to hydroclimate shifts, and underscore the need to develop integrated climate-hydrologic-operations models and decision-making protocols capable of accounting for all projected hydroclimate shifts. © 2020, The Author(s).
英文关键词	California; Climate change; Climate models; Downscaling; Hydroclimate; Water
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate models; Decision making; Information management; Precipitation (meteorology); Water management; Annual mean precipitation; Anthropogenic climate changes; Climate change projections; Climate change scenarios; Extreme precipitation; Global climate model; Spatiotemporal patterns; Water management systems; Climate change; climate change; climate modeling; decision making; global climate; hydrological modeling; hydrometeorology; sustainability; water management; California; United States
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146991
作者单位	Union of Concerned Scientists, Oakland, CA, United States; Department of Geological Sciences, University of Texas at Austin, 2305 Speedway Stop C1160, Austin, TX 78712-1692, United States; Institute of the Environment and Sustainability, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, United States; Capacity Center for Climate and Weather Extremes, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; The Nature Conservancy of California, San Francisco, CA, United States; Department of Land, Air, and Water Resources, University of California, Davis, Davis, CA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Persad G.G.,Swain D.L.,Kouba C.,et al. Inter-model agreement on projected shifts in California hydroclimate characteristics critical to water management[J],2020,162(3).
APA	Persad G.G.,Swain D.L.,Kouba C.,&Ortiz-Partida J.P..(2020).Inter-model agreement on projected shifts in California hydroclimate characteristics critical to water management.Climatic Change,162(3).
MLA	Persad G.G.,et al."Inter-model agreement on projected shifts in California hydroclimate characteristics critical to water management".Climatic Change 162.3(2020).