气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Biophysical and economic implications for agriculture of +1.5° and +2.0°C global warming using AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments

CCPortal

DOI	10.3354/cr01520
	Biophysical and economic implications for agriculture of +1.5° and +2.0°C global warming using AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments
	Ruane A.C.; Antle J.; Elliott J.; Folberth C.; Hoogenboom G.; Mason-D'Croz D.; Müller C.; Porter C.; Phillips M.M.; Raymundo R.M.; Sands R.; Valdivia R.O.; White J.W.; Wiebe K.; Rosenzweig C.
发表日期	2018
ISSN	0936-577X
起始页码	17
结束页码	39
卷号	76 期号:1
英文摘要	This study presents results of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of +1.5° and +2.0°C global warming above pre-industrial conditions. This first CGRA application provides multi-discipline, multi-scale, and multi-model perspectives to elucidate major challenges for the agricultural sector caused by direct biophysical impacts of climate changes as well as ramifications of associated mitigation strategies. Agriculture in both target climate stabilizations is characterized by differential impacts across regions and farming systems, with tropical maize Zea mays experiencing the largest losses, while soy Glycine max mostly benefits. The result is upward pressure on prices and area expansion for maize and wheat Triticum aestivum, while soy prices and area decline (results for rice Oryza sativa aremixed). An example global mitigation strategy encouraging bioenergy expansion ismore disruptive to land use and crop prices than the climate change impacts alone, even in the +2.0°C scenario which has a larger climate signal and lower mitigation requirement than the +1.5°C scenario. Coordinated assessments reveal that direct biophysical and economic impacts can be substantially larger for regional farming systems than global production changes. Regional farmers can buffer negative effects or take advantage of new opportunities via mitigation incentives and farm management technologies. Primary uncertainties in the CGRA framework include the extent of CO2 benefits for diverse agricultural systems in crop models, as simulations without CO2 benefits show widespread production losses that raise prices and expand agricultural area. © The authors 2018.
英文关键词	Agricultural system; Climate change; Climate impact; Climate stabilization; CO2; Crop model; Food prices; Mitigation
语种	英语
scopus关键词	agricultural modeling; agricultural production; agrometeorology; bioenergy; biophysics; carbon dioxide; climate change; climate effect; climate signal; farming system; global warming; incentive; land use; maize; regional climate; Glycine max; Oryza sativa; Triticum aestivum; Zea mays
来源期刊	Climate Research
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146977
作者单位	NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY 10025, United States; Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331, United States; University of Chicago, Chicago, IL 60637, United States; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, 2361, Austria; University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, United States; International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC 20005, United States; Commonwealth Science and Industrial Research Organisation, St Lucia, QLD 4067, Australia; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impacts Research, Potsdam, 14473, Germany; Columbia University Center for Climate Systems Research, New York, NY 10025, United States; USDA Economic Research Service, Washington, DC 20036, United States; USDA Agricultural Research Service, Maricopa, AZ 85239, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ruane A.C.,Antle J.,Elliott J.,et al. Biophysical and economic implications for agriculture of +1.5° and +2.0°C global warming using AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments[J],2018,76(1).
APA	Ruane A.C..,Antle J..,Elliott J..,Folberth C..,Hoogenboom G..,...&Rosenzweig C..(2018).Biophysical and economic implications for agriculture of +1.5° and +2.0°C global warming using AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments.Climate Research,76(1).
MLA	Ruane A.C.,et al."Biophysical and economic implications for agriculture of +1.5° and +2.0°C global warming using AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments".Climate Research 76.1(2018).